The event sent polls earlier in the week showing a surge in support for Kamala Harris, Biden’s current running mate. Projections show she could win 40 percent of the vote, according to the PredictIt platform, even though she has not yet been officially declared the Democratic nominee. The nomination itself represents an increase of 13 percentage points.
However, Donald Trump still has a sizable lead, with projections showing the former US president winning 60% of the vote, according to PredictIt, even though he saw a 3 percentage point drop after Biden’s withdrawal.
The “Harris” effect sent US stock indexes higher at the start of the week after a sharp decline at the end of last week. Bitcoin is down more than $150 since Sunday’s late open, the U.S. dollar is broadly weaker and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is down 2 basis points, XTB analysts point out.
The race for the White House just got murkier
Even so, it is too early to tell whether the “Harris effect” will cause US stocks to bounce back from last week’s sharp declines amid the global data blackout.
Democrats have watched over strong U.S. economic growth and record highs for U.S. stocks, especially tech giants. However, Joe Biden’s policies have also increased the deficit, which could ultimately hurt the country’s economic outlook.
In just 24 hours, the market has had to go from a clear victory for Trump and the Republicans to a more “nuanced” election race, especially as Harris appears to be pulling the independent vote to the Democrats.
The US presidential election is less than 4 months away, and the biggest risk right now is the emergence of a Democratic challenger to run against Harris, causing internal tensions within the party. At this stage, the event seems unlikely, but after a year full of political upheavals, nothing can be ruled out.
Harris could reduce demand for oil company stocks
If Harris is confirmed as the official Democratic nominee, then her voting record as California’s vice president and senator could be scrutinized.
Equally, it will be worth watching US oil companies on Monday as Kamala Harris has been seen as tough on the oil industry, opposing shale mining and hydraulic fracturing.
Thus, the rapid increase in its popularity in just 24 hours could have an impact on the US energy sector at the beginning of this week, XTB analysts point out.
(source: AFP)
Source: jurnalul.ro
