The symptoms are clear: governments of any kind that fall like flies or are punished by voters irritated with the status quo. But there are all kinds of theories about the causes of the disease. The religious turn the quote from the prophet Ezekiel around and say that the children are paying for the sin of the parents, in this case the surrender to speculative financial capitalism. The superstitious attribute it to medicine (black magic or supernatural powers) and they see in the jungle of politics skulls with the features of Trump and Milei, bags with Marine Le Pen’s teeth and tufts of Giorgia Meloni’s hair tied with a ribbon. And, from a more empirical point of view, blame is placed on globalization, the cost of living, high housing prices, culture wars, misinformation, social networks or fatigue with the woke and political correctness.
In that context, Ireland voted this Friday, having seen from the other side of the barrier the defeats of the Democrats in the US and the conservatives in the United Kingdom, the dramas of Macron and Scholz, the rise of the extreme right in Argentina, Italy and Holland, the warnings to those in power with large majorities in South Africa and India, the twists of the script in Botswana, Romania, South Korea or Japan… The tripartite coalition of the emerald island, made up of the two historical center parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael) plus the Greens, trust that the mask will save them from contagion in this global pandemic and prevent the coming to power of a left-wing bloc led by Sinn Féin, the former political arm of the GONNA. An exit poll gave Sinn Féin 21.1% of the vote, followed by Fine Gael (21%) and Fianna Fáil (19.5%).
An exit poll gives Sinn Féin 21.1% of the vote, followed by Fine Gael (21%) and Fianna Fáil (19.5%)
Irlanda is differentto the extent that there is no strong far-right party and the two center groups that emerged from rival factions in the civil war have ruled since independence a century ago (Fianna Fáil are the heirs of Éamon de Valera, and Fine Gael, those of Michael Collins), but also a case worth studying for that angry voter syndrome, and a microcosm of the abyss between macro and microeconomics.
On paper, Ireland is one of the richest countries in the world, unemployment is low, its economy is one of the fastest growing in Europe, last year it recorded a surplus of 30 billion euros, income per head has increased by 12%, and wealth (taking into account the value of real estate property), 34% throughout the legislature, the Government has lowered taxes by the equivalent of 1,200 euros per year per household, the large North American multinationals (Google, Apple, Intel, Pfizer, Microsoft, Meta…) contribute 40 billion annually to the Treasury and the public debt is half what it was in 2014. Can anyone give more? Voters should be happy, but the reality on the ground is different and all those numbers do not translate into well-being.
On the contrary. Whatever the official data says, what Irish people see is that prices have risen by 20% since the pandemic, rents by 43% to become unaffordable, public services and infrastructure have deteriorated, in the last year they have 150,000 immigrants have arrived who have changed the demographics of some towns and cities, many children live in poverty, crime is a problem, requests for political asylum have multiplied by 300 and in the heart of the In Dublin there are hundreds of homeless people who sleep in tents as if it were Los Angeles.
Ireland is a unique phenomenon in the sense that today it has fewer inhabitants (5.3 million) than in 1840 and a very low population density, but in recent years many who had gone into exile with the financial crisis have returned and have about a hundred thousand Ukrainians fleeing the war arrived. A fifth of the residents are born abroad, and the fact that there is a lack of accommodation to house asylum seekers, and they are packed into hotels, creates the false appearance that the country has been “invaded” by foreigners. This has fueled an extreme right that is still incipient, but increasingly organized and that can be relevant in the medium term. In the last year there have been riots.
When Sinn Féin obtained the majority of the popular vote in 2020 and was only stopped by the alliance between the two large long-standing parties (Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael), everything pointed to the coming to power of Mary Lou McDonald (the leader of the Republicans) it was only a matter of time. But from then to now the former political arm of the IRA has lost steam because it is in favor of orderly immigration and has been robbed of ground by independent populist candidates, of which there are many. Their only path consists of a left-wing bloc, with complex arithmetic, with the Social Democrats, Labour, the Greens and People Before Profit.
Who will be next taoiseach (prime minister) is almost a lottery, because the three main forces have arrived at the meeting with the polls virtually tied. The current holder of the position, Simon Harris (Fine Gael, 38 years old), called the elections coinciding with a rise in his popularity in the electrocardiogram of Irish politics, but his campaign has been weak, while the veteran Micheál Martin (Fianna Fáil , 63 years old) has been much more solid, and McDonald feels confident that she has overcome the hump. The proportional representation system requires agreements.
Apart from the angry voter syndrome and the dysfunction between macroeconomic numbers and reality, Trump’s presence represents a double danger for Ireland due to the prospect of a trade war and the possibility of attracting multinationals operating in the country with a reduction taxes in the US The prognosis of the disease is clear, but no one can find its antidote, neither in conventional politics nor in religion. Perhaps a saint’s ointment and an amulet could be an idea to consider…
Source: www.lavanguardia.com
