After record sales in October, which allowed the Russian car market to once again become second in Europe, the number of cars purchased by our fellow citizens has decreased significantly. RosBalt understood the situation.
After analyzing data from the consulting company GlobalData, specialists analytical agency “Avostat” noted that in October Germany became the European leader in car sales. 231,992 cars were sold there – this is 6% more than in the same month of 2023. Russian figures are more modest – 171,179 units (+52.4%), but indicate a clear second place: in the following UK, only 144,288 cars found their buyers. This is followed by France with 135,529 cars sold (-11.1%) and Italy with 126,488 cars (-9%).
However, the picture may change at the end of the year. From November 4 to November 10, car sales in Russia dropped by a quarter. The largest drop was recorded in Moscow and the Moscow region – 42.4% (to 2.93 thousand units) and 19.3% (to 1.98 thousand units) compared to the previous week, respectively. In St. Petersburg, 1.45 thousand cars were sold during this seven-day period – 28.8% less than the week before. If we talk about the indicators for the same period last year, sales in Moscow decreased by 22.6%, in St. Petersburg – by 13.8%.
In general, experts do not rule out the final drop for the month could be 25-30%. And this is if manufacturers do not raise prices. Otherwise, the market could fall by 40–50%
“Several factors influenced the decline in demand – an increase in the key rate, which pulled up the lending rate, tougher requirements for borrowers and the introduction of a recycling fee. It is noteworthy that part of these reasons also explains the increase in car sales in August–September: everyone tried to buy them before these changes and price increases came into force,” explained automotive industry expert Vadim Krasikov in a commentary to RosBalt.
It is not surprising that for St. Petersburg, in terms of sales of new cars, September was the best month in the last 2.5 years – according to experts from the Automarketer center and the Pragmatika dealership network, was registered 8,416 new cars (city residents most actively purchased models from the brands LADA, Haval and Geely), and over three quarters – 60,859 passenger cars and light commercial vehicles.
It is noteworthy that by mid-summer in the Northern capital, a total of 1 million 820 thousand cars were registered – this is the fourth result after Moscow, the Moscow region and the Krasnodar Territory. About 225 thousand of them are various variations of the domestic LADA. In second place is the Kia brand (138 thousand units), in third place is Volkswagen (123 thousand units). As for the model range, most often on the roads of the city on the Neva today you can find the Ford Focus (44 thousand units), followed by the Hyundai Solaris and Kia Rio (43 thousand units each), Volkswagen Polo (42 thousand units). ) and Skoda Octavia (34 thousand units).
Quite high October sales, Vadim Krasikov notes, both in St. Petersburg and in Russia as a whole were also due to the fact that dealers managed to accumulate a certain stock of cars at “old” prices.
“However, you need to understand that their reserves will probably be sold before the end of the year. Considering that these cars were purchased during the period of the old Wilsbor rates, as well as a good yuan exchange rate, I don’t think we should expect any New Year’s discounts. Of course, local offers for individual models from some brands are possible, but these will, I believe, be quite private stories,” Krasikov points out.
According to market participants, in October–November, after the rush of demand in previous months, car loans, which accounted for the bulk of sales (up to 80%), began to decline.
“This year, car lending is growing faster than all other segments of retail lending by banks. The overall growth in the number of issued car loans and their volumes will increase by more than 60% by the end of 2024. Inflationary expectations of rising car prices, together with the proposed conditions of automakers, contributed to the dynamic development of auto lending, but at the moment there is a slow cooling of customer demand, as a result of a methodical increase in interest rates,” expresses an opinion Director of the Department of Insurance and Financial Services of Avilon AG Andrey Ignatenko.
And a new round of development of car lending, as well as market growth, is expected to occur only after the recovery of the economy and the emergence of conditions for easing the monetary policy of the Central Bank, which will affect both the reduction of the interest rate (we must remember that loans are taken not only by individuals, but also business) and easing restrictions on requirements for borrowers.
Experts believe that the total volume of new cars sold this year will reach 1.6 million (51% more than in 2023). However, this is the basic scenario. There is also an optimistic and a pessimistic one – 1.63 million and 1.53 million units. respectively.
Next year so Participants in the car market do not expect significant growth. The basic forecast assumes that it will remain at the level of the 2024 base – at the level of 1.6 million units. In a positive scenario, it can increase by 10%; in a negative scenario, it can decrease by the same amount.
“According to our estimates, car prices will continue to rise in 2025. We expect prices to rise by about 15 – 20%. At the same time, in addition to the growth of the key rate, growth will be affected by an increase in the recycling fee and the weakening of the ruble, thereby causing a decrease in purchasing activity,” says Igor Chikin, executive director of ROAD.
Elena Dudina
Source: www.rosbalt.ru
