On Saturday, October 26, 2024, Israel conducted its first publicly acknowledged military operation on Iranian soil.
Israeli aircraft targeted around 20 military targets, avoiding sensitive sites such as nuclear enrichment facilities. The strike was expected following the launch of ballistic missiles from Iran earlier this month.
“It’s the beginning of a new phase, a dangerous phase with many more sensitive issues,” said Yoel Guzansky, an Israel expert on Iran at the Institute for National Security Studies, signaling increased instability in the region. He suggested that Iran’s muted response, characterized by statements suggesting that the attacks were manageable, illustrated strategic restraint aimed at avoiding a larger conflict. .
Ellie Geranmayeh, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, noted that the restraint shown by both sides suggests a possible conclusion to this round, when perhaps Iran will not respond to the attack again. However, the historical context of covert operations between the two countries complicates predictions, as each side has typically acted to undermine the other while avoiding direct attribution of responsibility. “There will be relief throughout Iran and throughout the region that the US has managed to contain Netanyahu for the time being,” Geranmayeh noted, further emphasizing the delicate balance at play.
Despite the current relative calm, the potential for escalation remains worrisome. Many analysts fear that despite the very limited scope of the operation (apparently under long-term US pressure not to escalate the conflict with Iran), Israel could soon increase its military activities after the US presidential election in early November. The handover in Washington is often seen as a key moment, potentially providing Israel with a perceived opportunity to strike decisively against Iranian capabilities.
What happens next will depend on the reactions of both Tehran and Jerusalem, making it imperative for regional players and global observers to remain vigilant in this unfolding story of Middle East tensions.
Source: zpravy.tiscali.cz
