The heat waves have finally passed, and the air conditioners were recently switched from overnight cooling to heating. Although we realized it ourselves, the new bulletin of the Republic Hydrometeorological Institute (RHMZ) officially confirmed that the summer of 2024 was the hottest in the history of measurements. Temperatures were on average 3°C higher than normal, and even almost a degree higher than the previous record summer of 2012.
It is the so-called meteorological summer, which differs from the calendar summer and lasts from June 1 to August 31.
But behind a large number of floorstakewhich illustrate how extreme the previous few months were, there are also some less clear insights that need to be shed light on.
In Serbia, writes RHMZ, as many as five heat waves were recorded during the summer, which are periods of at least five consecutive days when the temperature is very or extremely hot.
Two heat waves – one in mid-July and the other in mid-August – were particularly long-lasting and intense, with temperatures as much as 10 °C higher than normal for those periods.
This number of extremely hot periods during one summer used to be unimaginable: namely, in the middle of the 20th century, an average of one heat wave occurred during the whole year in Serbia, while in the last decade that figure has increased to four waves per year.
A heat wave is hotter than what?
Heat waves in Serbia today are calculated in relation to the normal for the thirty-year period from 1991 to 2020.
It is important to keep in mind that this period and what is “normal” today is actually already warmer due to climate change.
Namely, normal for 1991-2020. is 2 °C warmer during the summer compared to the earlier normal (1961-1990).
In other words, the analysis offered by RHMZ refers to a deviation from the already warmed average – if we were to compare this summer with earlier decades, from the 20th century, the numbers would be even more alarming.
We will single out a few more record holders: in Zaječar, out of a total of 92 summer days, as many as 78 were tropical, i.e. with temperatures over 30 °C. Almost all measuring stations recorded a record number of tropical days, and even in the traditionally icy Sjenica there were as many as 25 days with temperatures over 30 °C.
Due to the urban heat island effect, Belgrade has traditionally had the largest number of tropical nights, during which the temperature does not fall below 20 °C, but this year there were still a record number of them – as many as 60 tropical nights in the overheated capital. This broke the record from 2012, when there were 51 (and for example, the previous year there were 31).
The measured subjective feeling of temperature reached 46.2 °C on July 17 in Belgrade
In its report, the RHMZ also stated deviations in the so-called the heat stress index, which is a measure of the subjective feeling of heat, which includes factors such as, for example, air humidity (and is important for assessing the feeling of heat and health risks for the population).
In Belgrade, this index stood out in particular, so, according to the RHMZ, its highest value was measured on July 17 in the capital: on that day, the maximum temperature was 37.1 °C, but the subjective feeling of temperature was as high as 46.2 °C.
This is also the highest value of this index measured during the summer of 2024.
In its newsletter, the RHMZ also offers an analysis of certain data in relation to the older period (1961-1990), which is important if we want to look at extreme events in the light of climate change – and the summer of 2024 could be described as one prolonged extreme event.
Compared to the second half of the 20th century, the summer of 2024 in Belgrade was as much as 6.1 °C warmer, and the average air temperature in the entire territory of Serbia was in the category of extremely warm.
Perhaps the best picture of the extreme difference between this year’s summer and the former normal is shown by a visual made by the Institute of Meteorology of the Faculty of Physics in Belgrade, with the insight that this summer we had only 7 days with maximum temperatures below the former average:
However, some data presented in the RHMZ report remain insufficiently clear.
One such data is the amount of precipitation: for example, according to the Institute, during the summer of 2024, the amount of precipitation in Belgrade was in the “normal” category, with a total of 205.2 mm of rain that fell in the capital from June to August.
However, this data does not reveal a key insight: out of a total of 205.2 mm of rain that fell in Belgrade from June 1 to August 31, as much as 154 mm – over three quarters of the total precipitation – it fell in a week from June 27 to July 2.
This is the result that climate models have been predicting for years: in Serbia, climate change will not lead to large changes in the total amount of precipitation, but it will lead to more intense periods of precipitation and droughts, in which large amounts of precipitation fall in shorter time frames, which is what just happened. this summer:
Now that the extreme heat has passed, and summer is turning from an unbearable reality into a historical fact, we are left with the prediction that summers like this will become everyday in the future – and that we can only slow down this process by reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
Don’t miss the latest episode of the podcast on Sunday, September 22 at 7 p.m AGRO STORIES in which Ana Vuković Vimić spoke about climate change and its impact on agricultural production. You can watch the episode via our YouTube channel, Spotify platform/Agro price and Apple podcasts.
Source: Climate 101
Source: www.agromedia.rs
