Will There may be an eighty-two percent probability that a magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake, a so-called mega-earthquake, will hit Japan in the next 30 years. This is the conclusion of the survey presented on Thursday, which was prepared on behalf of the government of the island nation.
The Earthquake Research Institute previously estimated between 74 and 81 percent the probability of such a disaster,
in his latest research, he increased this to between 75 and 82 percent.
The compilers also highlight that such an earthquake would cover a significant part of the island’s eastern coast, endangering around 300,000 peopleand would result in huge financial losses.
The institute pointed out that 79 years have passed since the last, record-breaking earthquakeand the probability of another similar disaster increases by about one percent every year.
According to a government estimate published in 2012, the smaller islands belonging to Japan
in the event of such an earthquake, a tsunami with a height of up to 30 meters can flood it,
and the tsunami can reach densely populated islands such as Honshu and Shikoku in seconds.
Last August, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has already issued a mega-earthquake warningfor the first time since the signaling system was installed after the 2011 earthquake that caused the Fukushima disaster, among others. The warning was issued after a 7.1 magnitude quake and was withdrawn after a week. As a result of the warning, many people canceled their planned trips and bought up food stocks in stores, resulting in shortages of rice and other goods for a time.
Stretching about 800 kilometers south of the island of Honshu, which forms the central part of Japan Nankai ditch it is closely monitored, as several devastating earthquakes – between magnitude 8 and 9 – have started from there in the last two centuries.
These mega-earthquakes, which usually occur in pairs, often cause tsunamis, further exacerbating the devastation. For more than 200 years, 1707-ben the Nankai Trench shook along its entire length, causing the second strongest earthquake in Japanese history. After the earthquake that also caused the most recent eruption of Mount Fuji 1854-ben two more mega-earthquakes were recorded in Japan, followed by another similar one 1944-ben and 1946-ban.
The cover image is an illustration. Cover image source: Portfolio
Source: www.portfolio.hu
