Kuo warns that iPhone 16 sales forecasts may be too optimistic

The iPhone 16 will be released in September and Apple expects that one of the most attractive features will be the arrival of Apple Intelligence, the whole great set of functions linked to artificial intelligence that was so much talked about at WWDC24. However, the limitations of this technology in terms of geographical availability as well as the limitation to the English language may be creating an overly optimistic bias in sales forecasts. And that’s what analyst Ming Chi-Kuo claims, who warns that Apple has not increased production of the iPhone 16 compared to the figures for the iPhone 15 throughout last year.

Apple Intelligence on the iPhone 16 won’t boost sales of the device

We have talked a lot about Apple Intelligence since it was presented at WWDC24, such as what limitations the tool will have worldwide as well as the devices that will have all the functions of this new technology. All this, since the presentation of Apple Intelligence, has created a false expectation of increased demand for the device. However, We remind you that Apple’s AI will only be available in English and the entire European Union will be excluded from this technology until at least 2024.

This is what he has published in a new report analyst Ming Chi-Kuo, who claims that the production level of the iPhone 16 has not increased compared to the iPhone 15 at the same time last year. This information is extrapolated with the economic growth data of Apple suppliers: TSMC and Largan. The forecasts, therefore, are about 87 million iPhone 16 for the second half of 2024, 4 million fewer than the iPhone 15s produced in the second half of 2023 (91 million).

Therefore, what Kuo is trying to argue is that There may be a bubble of optimism building around Apple’s upcoming iPhone 16 very focused especially on the arrival of Apple Intelligence:

Regardless of whether Apple Intelligence alone can drive replacement demand (which is another important topic), the expectation that consumers will buy the new iPhone 16 from the Apple Intelligence Beta in the second half of 2024 may be too optimistic.