A quarter of business leaders anticipate a decline in their activity in 2025, while only 22% expect an increase. The balance of opinion measured by Bpifrance therefore stands at -3, compared to +16 on average between 2000 and 2023. This indicator plunges among others in industry, while this sector was until now among the most resilient, with tourism and services, concerning the prospects for business development.
The fact remains that the companies questioned by Bpifrance form a heterogeneous group. In large SMEs with 100 to 249 employees, activity forecasts even improve slightly compared to a year ago, while remaining below the long-term average.
“A shock of confidence is missing”
The drop in demand will continue to weigh on the cash flow of small businesses, which has been gradually eroding since 2021. All sectors combined, 25% of bosses expect a deterioration in their cash flow in the next six months, i.e. a increase of five points in one semester. “What business leaders lack is a shock of confidence,” considers Philippe Mutricy, the director of studies at Bpifrance, for whom “political uncertainty certainly played a role in these results”. The study of the public bank was carried out a few days before the fall of the government of former Prime Minister Michel Barnier on December 4.
“In 2025, business leaders tend to extend the curves” observed for the year 2024, observes Philippe Mutricy. In the second half of the year, the slowdown in activity was greater than anticipated in the previous study. More than a third of them reported a drop in their activity, compared to 26% last May. “The balance of opinion for the year 2024 returns to its 2013 level, at the end of the sovereign debt crisis”, underlines Laetitia Morin, economist at Bpifrance. On average, managers anticipate a decrease in their turnover of 1.8% in 2024, compared to an increase of 0.6% in 2023. In industry, the expected contraction in turnover is 2. 2% on average. Only SMEs with at least 100 employees expect positive growth of 0.7% for last year.
Thus, nearly 60% of managers believe that insufficient demand is an obstacle to investment. 47% want to make investments in 2025, a level below the long-term average and down three points over one year. “This proportion, however, remains higher than what was observed between 2012 and 2014, explains Sabrina El Kasmi, head of the economic and macroeconomics department at Bpifrance. On the other hand, our indicator on the amounts invested is falling significantly and is well below its long-term average, which confirms degraded investment spending.” In 2024, 43% of managers have indeed made investments, this time below the dynamic of 2013-2014 and compared to 46% in 2023.
Towards a new failure record?
What about business failures in the coming months given this difficult context? According to the BPCE bank observatory published on Wednesday January 8, around 66,422 incidents of this type took place in 2024, a record since at least 2010. For Baptiste Thornary, head of economic studies and the situation at Bpifrance, “the level of failures will be maintained if the current sub-mode of activity continues, but we do not expect a surge”.
For its part, the BPCE observatory seems a little less optimistic and is counting on a new record of 68,000 business failures in 2025. The study shows that catching up on the failures avoided during the Covid years has not yet been achieved. only partial, particularly for companies with fewer than six employees. Baptiste Thornary puts it before the average financial situation of companies remains “a point of resilience”.
Hiring, finally, is expected to continue to slow down in 2025. Already in the second half of 2024, recruitment projects are marking time. “with a dynamic that converges towards that of turnover”, says Baptiste Thornary. The Bpifrance study shows that industrial employment is no longer an exception: still significantly higher than its long-term average in spring 2024, its dynamic subsequently stalled.
Source: www.usinenouvelle.com
