US election winner Donald Trump’s talk of high import tariffs and massive deportations of immigrants have raised concerns about the economic outlook.
But how much of the talk is rhetoric, and how much will Trump finally follow through on the actions he has flashed?
“We will probably see quite a lot of them,” he estimates OP: n rescuer Lippo Suominen In the Market Council.
He reminds that in his first presidential term, Trump fulfilled quite a lot of his previous promises.
“But how strongly immigration will be tackled, how big the tax reductions and customs will eventually be, these are all open.”
Danish Bank senior analyst Antti Ilvonen reminds that Trump received a strong mandate with a clear election victory.
“Especially he can set customs with his own settings, that is, in a way, he can do almost whatever he wants. Of course, the civil service machinery can apply the brakes somewhat.”
However, he points out that the Republican majority is becoming thin in the lower house of Congress.
“We may not see the most aggressive tax cuts or stimulus measures, but only time will tell.”
Actian equity investment manager Andreas Bergman says that Trump’s recent administration appointments also speak for the fact that “it will be colorful”.
“Here, we are really trying to take a lot out of those promises.”
Trump’s promises are feared to accelerate inflation, which would tighten the central bank Fed’s monetary policy just when it has entered the path of interest rate cuts. Expectations about the Fed’s future interest rate cuts have clearly diluted.
“I still believe that in December we will still see an interest rate drop and certainly next year as well,” says Aktian Bergman.
Ilvonen also bets that interest rate cuts will continue for a long time:
“However, it will take some time before Trump’s actions are reflected in the realized economic development, even if he manages to push them through quickly.”
The federal government is getting into debt at a fast pace. Need to worry about America’s debt now?
“In the short term, it seems that no one cares about the growth of the US debt. It’s another great example that it’s not a problem until it is a problem”, reflects Lippo Suominen.
“For now, everyone is celebrating that the US keeps the economy running with debt, which helps other countries as well. If the United States is doing well, it will be reflected everywhere.”
See the experts’ stock tips and the entire broadcast in the attached video.
Market narrate
The Market Council is discussing the United States as an investment destination this week. How does Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election affect the market? And what kind of economic policy is in store and how will it affect investors?
The Market Council also talks about whether it is still worth investing in the United States and how one could build one’s own portfolio to withstand future changes.
Danske Bank’s senior analyst Antti Ilvonen, OP’s chief strategist Lippo Suominen and Aktia’s director of equity investment Andreas Bergman will participate in the discussion.
Market Council is hosted by Kauppalehti’s news manager Jussi Rosendahl.
The program’s commercial partner is Aktia. All journalistic decisions are made in the editorial office.
Watch all Markkinaraati episodes from here.
Source: www.arvopaperi.fi
