Maduro can still decide: he will stand aside peacefully, or he will test whether popular anger will sweep him from his place

Tensions are rising in Venezuela as the presidential election approaches. On July 28, Venezuelans can decide whether to stick with Nicolás Maduro, who has been in power for more than ten years – since 2013.

However, the question is not really who the Venezuelans who have the right to vote want to see at the head of the country. “If this were a normal election, it’s clear that Edmundo González would win by a mile,” he is quoted as saying The Guardian Phil Gunson, an analyst at the Caracas-based Crisis Group.

he told Economx Gyula Sándor Nagyprofessor at the Corvinus University of Budapest.

Even retaining candidate status is a big word

In the spring, the united opposition, consisting of ten parties, officially supported González, who was previously Venezuela’s ambassador to Buenos Aires. However, this only happened after impenetrable obstacles were placed in front of two candidates.

The first candidate, María Corina Machado, who won a landslide victory in the primaries, was banned from running. After that, the opposition stood behind academician and professor Corina Yoris, but she was not registered due to an “administrative error”.

“The diplomat González passed through the sieve in any case, probably because he announced afterwards that he represented the opposition”

said the expert.

However, new events have upset the mood in the Latin American country: a week and a half before the election was taken into custody chief of staff responsible for Machado’s security.

A clear choice cannot be enveloped

Even in relation to the previous presidential election, it can be suspected that the numbers and results that the votes cast would otherwise have justified were not made public.

“The system is full of holes, to put it mildly. In 2018, non-existent votes were added to the final result, which was revealed at the time. The system of a British IT company was used, and information was leaked from there that there was probably a fraud. It was considered impossible that 6 million votes cast for Maduro would suddenly appear under legal circumstances at ten in the evening. Now it is not certain that such information would be made public, because another IT system is already being used, which is not internationally accredited,” the researcher pointed out.

“Ultimately, they can do what they want with the calculation. We have known since Stalin that the one whose people count the votes always wins,” he stated.

The biggest question now is what Maduro will do if it is confirmed that the majority of the population wants him to leave – whether he will accept it or not. If he does not accept it, his immediate environment may still try to make him understand that he no longer has support in the country.

“If Maduro rigs this election, everyone will know it happened. Then the question is how many millions of people will take to the streets to protest, what exactly will the protesters do, and how the police and the military will react to this. Do the public soldiers stand on the side of the protesters and do not shoot into the crowd when it moves towards the presidential palace or do they shoot into the people,” said the professor.

Now these may be very different protests

Of course, this would not be the first time that Venezuela has been rocked by protests. In 2017 and 2018, a part of the population showed their dissatisfaction with the work of the Maduro regime with a series of protests.

However, according to the expert, there is a huge difference compared to the conditions at that time. This is the person of Machado, who cannot be voted for, but in practice he is still the leader of the opposition. He can mobilize people not only in the capital, but also on a national level.

he said.