THE STATE OF HEALTH
1. The Minister of Health did something commendable: a 100-day review of the Emergency Program, acknowledging that many things did not go well. This gesture of humility is only fitting for any minister. It is not normal, but it is commendable.
2. The balance is, in fact, fragile: of the 15 urgent measures planned, only 8 have been implemented; the most positive result is the end of oncology waiting lists; the result is average in the other surgical and consultation waiting lists; and the most negative result is in obstetric emergencies: too many closures and excessive births in ambulances. Something absolutely abnormal.
3. All this happened because, despite the competence and good will of the Minister, some mistakes were made:
First, exaggerated expectations were created around this Program. However, high expectations usually only lead to failure. There was a lack of pedagogy in explaining to the country that problems that have accumulated over years cannot be solved in months. It was a certain political naivety.
· Secondly, the Minister has lacked a protective shield, as Fernando Araújo had in the past. The new director of the EC may even be competent. But he does not have the status of his predecessor.
4. Winter is now the decisive test. If the health response in winter goes well, the bad image of this summer will be erased. If winter goes badly, the Minister’s political fragility will be reinforced.
MORE OR LESS DOCTORS?
1. Talking about health also means talking about doctors. A few weeks ago, the Portuguese Medical Association said that Portugal is the second country with the most doctors per inhabitant in the EU. This argument is distorted.
· It is true that, according to the latest OECD data, in 2021, Portugal is in second place, right after Greece, in the number of doctors per thousand inhabitants.
· However, the OECD warns, in the same report, that Portugal’s figures are inflated by 30%. This is because the number of doctors registered with the OM also includes those who are already retired or who have emigrated.
· Thus, with the correction of the aforementioned 30%, Portugal would no longer be in 2nd place in the European ranking, but in 16th place.
2. In any case, while training more doctors may be important, this should not distract us from the most urgent task: taking care of the management, organization and attractiveness of the NHS. This is the priority.
· We can have more doctors, but if the NHS is not attractive they will flee to the private sector or abroad.
· Hence the importance of the decision to create 20 USF model C. A kind of PPP in health centers. It could be an opportunity to prevent more doctors from leaving for the private sector and to try to get private doctors to return. Let’s wait and see the results. One thing is certain: it is a measure with a reformist spirit. These days, this is rare.
THE CONTROVERSY OF TAP
1. Nothing that has come to light is new. It has been treated as new by some commentators, it is true. But what is really new is the IGF audit. Even the issue of the Public Prosecutor’s Office is nothing new. The Public Prosecutor’s Office has been analyzing the case for a long time. But even if repeated, the issue is delicate.
2. As for the fundamental issue, there are three aspects to take into account:
First, the privatization of TAP in 2015 was seriously flawed: it was closed by a caretaker government, after the elections and when another government was already in the pipeline. A mistake. The sale should have been closed before the elections or should have been left to the new government. This mistake poisoned everything.
Second, the operation in question is complex and appears to be of dubious legality. Opinions are divided. The IGF says it may be illegal; in 2015 a legal opinion endorsed its legality; in 2022, a new opinion reiterated the idea of illegality. We must await the court’s decision. But be careful: if a former government official is named as a defendant, we could have a political mess.
Third, Minister Pinto Luz. He is the easiest target because he is a minister. But based on the facts, he is the one who bears practically no responsibility. First, he was only in government for 26 days; second, when he entered the government, the privatization had already been decided in June; third, he was not at the November CM that approved the final resolution of the sale (only MF Maria Luís Albuquerque and ME Morais Leitão); fourth, he has no signature on the contractual documents; fifth, he was SE, but did not even have delegation of powers from his Minister.
NEW SCHOOL YEAR
1. The PM lowered expectations regarding the start of the school year. He did well. The school year will start with fewer problems than the previous one, but still with many gaps.
In September 2023, the school year began with 324,000 students without classes in at least one subject. This school year, the number drops to 223,000 students. A reduction of 31%. It is an improvement. But it is still a very short improvement.
· The official forecast for the end of the 1st term is more hopeful: at the end of the first term of the previous school year, there were still 20 thousand students without classes in at least one subject; the forecast for this school year is a reduction of 90% (that is, a reduction to 2,088 students).
All of this is the result of years of neglect that failed to anticipate the shortage of teachers, particularly due to the ageing of the teaching staff. The good news is that there are several measures in place to combat the situation. One of them will be approved in the next CM: a salary incentive for teachers who accept teaching in the most deprived areas (Lisbon, Setúbal and Algarve).
2. With the new school year, the controversy over mobile phones in schools returns. Will they be banned or kept? Europe is increasingly banning them.
France: the country with the strongest stance on this issue. The use of mobile phones in schools has been banned since 2018.
· Germany: Most schools, on their own initiative, banned the use of mobile phones in class.
Netherlands: Government imposed ban on secondary education. In this new school year, the ban on primary education will continue.
Spain: There is no ban by government decision. Some schools have imposed the ban.
Portugal: Schools have the autonomy to make decisions. Seventeen groups have already restricted their use. The news is that the government is preparing to issue a recommendation that could lead to a ban. After all, the harm is great, especially to young people’s academic performance.
THE COUNCIL OF STATE
1. The President has scheduled a Council of State for October 1st. The agenda seems innocuous: the state of the economy. But the objective is clear: to build bridges between the Government and the Socialist Party with a view to making the State Budget viable. This could be one of the most important Councils of State of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s term. There have been Councils of State to resolve crises before. But this one could help to avoid a crisis. It puts pressure in favor of stability.
2. What this schedule proves is the following:
· Firstly, the President is very aware of the situation and does not want to make things easier. He wants to act in advance to avoid a new crisis.
· Second, the PR realizes that nothing is guaranteed and an agreement on the State Budget could occur at the 25th hour.
Third, there can be no crisis. If there were a crisis, we would have the following electoral calendar: legislative elections in February 2025; local elections in September 2025; presidential elections in January 2026. Three elections in eleven months. Total madness.
3. That said, there are three absolutely necessary things:
· It is necessary to reduce the political noise surrounding the State Budget. There is too much noise. This noise is damaging negotiations.
· More humility is needed in the debate. From the Government, because it is a minority party. From the PS, because the national interest is at stake.
· We need to pay attention to the content of the State Budget. We need to have a Budget. But we need a State Budget with a reformist spirit.
Source: www.jornaldenegocios.pt
