ADVANCES IN EDUCATION
1. The government says that there are fewer students without classes. The Socialist Party contests. Is it word against word? For some, yes. For others, no. But there is one fact that makes a difference: the numbers are not from the government. They are from the General Directorate of school establishments. A Director. General is a technical entity and not a political one. Like this:
· In December 2023, there were 21 thousand students without classes. In November of this year this number was reduced by 90%.
· This improvement is due, above all, to the reinforcement of five thousand teachers: through hiring by schools; for the return of teachers to schools; by postponing retirements.
· The news is that this improvement will continue in the coming weeks. Due to an extraordinary competition already in its final stages of completion, there will be more teachers in schools, especially in areas traditionally most in need of teachers: Lisbon and Vale do Tejo, Alentejo and Algarve.
2. There is, however, a new problem that is worrying families: an outbreak of strikes by non-teaching staff in schools. An outbreak of strikes that is paralyzing many schools. This is the bad news. The good news is that this situation is on its way to being resolved.
· The Ministry of Education is finalizing a solution that involves: first, differentiating and valuing non-teaching staff who have educational functions in terms of remuneration; second, agree this solution with the National Association of Municipalities (these employees today belong to local authorities); finally, negotiate the contours of the solution with the unions. Everything is being addressed to have a solution by the end of the year.
EMIGRATION INCREASES
1.In the budget debate, the new IRS Jovem has just been approved. Precisely in the same week that INE released the most up-to-date data on emigration. There is only one conclusion: the situation will worsen in 2023. Both emigration in general and that of young people in particular.
2. Let’s look at the objective numbers:
· In 2023, 81 thousand Portuguese left Portugal. It is the highest value in the last five years. An increase of 13.5% compared to 2022.
· More than half of these new emigrants are young people up to the age of 35 (46 thousand). The highest number since 2020.
· The majority of those who leave (42%) have a higher education degree. In other words, they are qualified young people, who are needed in Portugal.
3. With IRS Jovem or without IRS Jovem, all this data shows that the problem of our emigration continues to be a serious problem.
· In the economic dimension: we need talent and we are not able to retain them.
· In the field of rejuvenating society: with emigration, we don’t just lose talent. We also lose young people at the time of having children. These will tend to be born outside and not inside.
· In the area of family breakdown: a young person who goes abroad is a tragedy for his family. The drama of separation and disruption.
· There is only one way: to make the economy grow; raise wages; and lower taxes. You have to have ambition.
THE 25TH OF NOVEMBER
1. The 25th of November is celebrated tomorrow in AR. Some ask: why celebrate this date now when it was not celebrated before? I would put the question the other way around: why only now? In my opinion, November 25th could have been celebrated before. Because it was a defining moment in our democracy.
· Of course, it is necessary to distinguish between April 25th and November 25th. April 25th is the founding date of democracy. It is not a date comparable to any other. Nor replaceable by any other. It has its own identity. The strongest of all.
· November 25th does not have the strength of April 25th. But it was, nevertheless, a decisive moment in our democratic trajectory: it restored the purity of the April principles; ended arbitrary arrests that offended the rule of law; eliminated the new censorship that was already installed in the media; guaranteed that the country would even hold legislative elections. As Antonio Barreto says: “the 25th of November saved and guaranteed democracy”.
2. As for parties, there are two distinct plans to consider:
· The first is regarding PCP and BE. Your discomfort is understood. They feel defeated by November 25th.
· The second is regarding PS. Some socialists seem to feel some discomfort with this celebration. But the discomfort doesn’t make sense. On the political level, the great combatant and great victor of the 25th of November was Mário Soares. Sá Carneiro and Freitas do Amaral also played a role. But really decisive was Mário Soares and the PS. I really think that, if he were alive, Mário Soares would be in AR celebrating. In a gesture of coherence. Just like Eanes, who goes to AR. In another gesture of coherence. Eanes and Soares are the great references of the 25th of November.
PRESIDENTIAL AND AUTARCHICAL OFFICERS
1. António José Seguro, former PS leader, admitted in an interview that he is considering a candidacy for PR. For many it may come as a surprise. For me, it is not, since about a month ago Pedro Nuno Santos spoke of his name as a potential presidential candidate. At that time, Seguro felt legitimized to move forward. He seems to have the desire and has given a clear signal in this regard. You have to wait for confirmation.
2. The same can be said about Gouveia e Melo. Yesterday’s press says that Almirante does not want to continue being CEMA, because he wants to be a candidate for PR. It doesn’t surprise me at all either. Even nothing. At least since the summer, not to say before, I believe that Gouveia e Melo has this desire very clearly. All public signs were in that direction. You have that right.
3. But before the presidential elections there are local elections. And the candidates begin to position themselves. I have been talking about some of them. Today, I will talk about others, in three municipalities.
· Lisbon. In the PSD, Carlos Moedas’s re-candidacy is safe. Even so, its formalization should not happen anytime soon. The questions are in PS: Mariana Vieira da Silva, Alexandra Leitão or Siza Vieira? All three are hypotheses. It remains to be seen who advances
· Harbor. In the PS it is decided: Manuel Pizarro is the candidate for the Chamber. The doubts are in the PSD: Pedro Duarte, José Pedro Aguiar Branco or Miguel Guimarães? One of the three will be selected.
· Cascais. There are no more doubts here. There are certainties. On the PSD side, the candidate is Piteira Lopes, current vice-president of the CM. On the PT side, it is Marcos Perestrelo, current vice-president of the AR.
· Good political battles are therefore expected, with Porto and Lisbon being politically notable.
UKRAINE: 1000 DAYS LATER
1. There is a climate of fear in Europe regarding a new global conflict. Firstly, the fear that Russia will use nuclear weapons. The risk exists, obviously. But the use of nuclear weapons is not likely.
· First, China doesn’t allow it. Since the beginning of the war, China has supported Russia. On one condition: Russia does not use nuclear weapons. It’s a red line. Nobody believes that Russia wants to violate this red line and lose China’s support.
· Second, Putin is a calculating and rational man. Think about everything coldly. He knows that Russia has nuclear weapons, but he knows that the West has them too: the USA, France and the UK.
· Third. This threat is a Russian classic. Since the start of the war, Putin has made 12 such threats. But it only risks threatening. He knows that nuclear weapons are not for use. Nobody wins by using them. They are to deter.
2. People are concerned about security. It makes sense. But be careful: the most dangerous wars we can have in the future are not military wars. These are economic and trade wars.
· Trump’s main objective is economic protectionism: defending American products from competition from China and the USA. Hence the threats of new customs tariffs on Chinese or European products entering the US. This can generate wars. But these are trade wars. These are not military wars.
· The EU should be clear about its priorities. Take care of strengthening the European pillar of NATO, for sure. But the first major priority is to dialogue with the US to avoid the proliferation of trade wars. Because they ruin the economy. If the European economy is already not doing well, economic and trade wars will make it much worse.
Source: www.jornaldenegocios.pt
