Marques Mendes: The interim model is being established in the Justice system – Marques Mendes

NEW SCHOOL YEAR

1. The school year began with failures. Fewer than the previous year, but still with many failures. Faced with this reality, the Ministry of Education began to change.

• First, by focusing on learning. We have been falling in international rankings for years, and it wasn’t just because of the pandemic. Hence the tutoring, the “ban” on mobile phones, the reconfiguration of exams and the assessment of digital textbooks.

• Second, by investing in the attractiveness of the teaching career. This is the case with the agreement to recover service time and the new travel allowance for teachers. All of this costs hundreds of millions of euros. A huge investment.

• What this proves is that the ministry team, in addition to being a top-notch team with strategic vision, has a lot of political clout. Never has a minister had so much political clout with the Prime Minister and the Minister of Finance. Otherwise, these millions would not exist.

2. The way the Ministry of Education approached the issue of migrant students is intelligent. There is no good integration of immigrants without mastery of Portuguese and without good integration of children in schools.

• Today, there are already 140,000 migrant students, 13.9% of all enrolled students, from 187 different nationalities. Thus, the decision to support migrant students by creating 272 linguistic and cultural mediators is strategic to promote their integration in schools.

3. Speaking of immigration, we welcome Minister Leitão Amaro’s decision to create Service Centers for the legalization of 400,000 immigrants on the waiting list. The first center opened this week. In the coming weeks, 10 more will be opened throughout the country. This is not about opening doors to immigration. It is about keeping them open, with control and rigor. That is how it should be.

THE ESCAPE FROM VALLEY OF JEWS

1. The Minister of Justice reacted late, but she reacted well: she replaced the Director General of Prison Services, which was inevitable; she ordered an audit to assess the state of security in prisons, which was mandatory; and she ordered another management audit, which also became obvious. She did all this in a determined and good manner.

2. Even so, we continue to have situations that are difficult to understand:

• First: hours passed between the prisoners’ escape and the authorities’ mobilization to capture them. Which all proves, as Ângelo Correia, an expert, says, that the failure was not only in the prison. It was in the entire internal security system.

• Second: the Court of Execution of Sentences took four days to issue international arrest warrants. Therefore, if on Sunday or Monday any of the escapees were detected in Spain, they could not be arrested due to the lack of an arrest warrant. This proves that our State is very amateurish.

• Third: this pattern that is being established in the Justice system is equally difficult to understand: everything is interim and provisional.

1. Director of the Vale dos Judeus Prison – interim.
2. Director-General of Prison Services – interim.
3. National Director of the Judicial Police – interim, because his term ended more than three months ago and he was not reappointed or replaced. An anomaly.

3. Fairly or unfairly, all this creates an image of carelessness, negligence and inability to make decisions. And it weakens the State. After all, someone who is interim, provisional or merely managing does not have the same leadership status as someone who is appointed permanently.

THE STATE OF SECURITY

1. The escape from Vale de Judeus was a serious event. It should not be underestimated. But it should not be dramatized either. After all, what is happening in Portugal in the area of ​​security in general and prisons in particular is perfectly in line with European standards.

• We are the 7th safest country in the world and one of the EU countries with the lowest violent crime rates relative to the number of inhabitants. This is a particularly important national asset.

• The ratio of prisoners to prison guards is in line with the European average: three prisoners for every guard. The unions are right to point out that the number of guards has fallen in recent years. But the number of prisoners has also fallen.

• The prisoner escape rate in Portugal is well below the European average. In 2022, for example, Sweden, which is similar in size to ours, had almost two hundred escapes. Portugal had only 8 escapes.

2. Interestingly, Portugal is in contrast to Europe in another aspect. We are the country in Europe with the longest prison sentences. In this regard, we are actually leading. On average, we have prison sentences of almost thirty months, while the European average is only 10 months. On the other hand, we are the 6th country in Europe with the oldest inmates: 25% are over 50 years old.

3. Going back to the beginning: there were failures in the prison, in the prison system and in the internal security system. The usual failures in Portugal: management, organization and leadership. These failures should be corrected. For now, all we know is that there was an escape and that the prisoners are still at large. Everything else needs to be done.

NEW PGR

1. The current PGR went to Parliament and her performance was generally criticized, from the left and the right:

• He was arrogant. He did not have the humility to recognize a single error, failure or exaggeration.

• He was unable to distinguish between normal, legitimate criticism and an orchestrated campaign.

• It showed that, in addition to lacking authority and leadership, he also lacks the common sense required in these places.

2. But the performance of the MPs also leaves a lot to be desired. Firstly, as Miguel Pinheiro wrote, it seems that only political cases are of interest to the MPs. Secondly, it should be acknowledged that not everything is bad in the MP: the recent investigation into the Vórtex case in Espinho is an exemplary case: a quick investigation and solid accusation.

3. Having said that, I don’t think it’s worth wasting time with Lucília Gago anymore. She’s leaving and won’t be missed. The important thing now is the future:

• We are days away from choosing a new PGR. It is essential that the choice falls on a truly independent person, with leadership, communication and internal motivation skills.

• The ideal would be to choose a person with the profile of Joana Marques Vidal, from her circle or who had worked with her.

• I am convinced that the selection of the new Attorney General will go well this time. No one wants to repeat the bad example of 6 years ago. This time there will be more care and more desire to get it right.

THE DRAGHI REPORT

1. Thirty years ago, Lucas Pires said that Europe was an economic giant, but a political dwarf. It “ruled” the economy, but “did not rule” international politics. After Mario Draghi’s report, we can see that this statement is out of date. The EU continues to be a political dwarf, but it is beginning to cease to be an economic giant. After all, it is visibly losing competitiveness to the US and China.

2. This is the report of our discontent. The numbers are brutal.

• Twenty years ago, the difference between US GDP and EU GDP was 17% in favor of the US. By 2023, this difference has increased to 30%.

• Over the past 20 years, the EU has lost market share in world trade (3 percentage points). China, on the other hand, has gained 13 percentage points.

• Energy costs for companies are much higher in the EU than in the US. Electricity is two to three times more expensive in the EU. And for natural gas, the difference is four to five times greater. As a result, European companies are losing competitiveness.

• The EU invests much less than the US in information technology, innovation and intellectual property. Many European talents “flee” to the US.

3. Mario Draghi has a solution: a super Marshall Plan for the EU, with annual investments of 750 to 800 billion euros. The idea is good, but it is difficult to make viable. In addition to an economic crisis, Europe is experiencing a crisis of political leadership: the European engine is seized. The German chancellor is in political decline; and the French president is in sharp decline. In addition, populism and the far right are undermining the EU. In this context, it is difficult to be bold and ambitious. Yet another challenge for Ursula Von Der Leyen and António Costa.

US ELECTIONS

Kamala Harris won the debate with Trump but had little political return in the polls. After all, the debate brought little or nothing new to voters.

• At the moment, Kamala, according to polls, is ahead, both in the universal vote and in the electoral college (14 votes difference).

• But be careful: first, everything is still within the margin of error; second, let’s never forget that Trump usually has worse polls than votes. It was like that in 2016 and in 2000.

• In an election where everything is still up for grabs, what are each candidate’s political strengths? Kamala has in her favor the momentum of victory that leans in her favor, because she is currently the favorite; the mobilization of the party and its traditional supporters; and the discourse on abortion that mobilizes especially the female electorate.

• Trump’s main strengths include the economy and immigration. These two issues are usually the Democrats’ Achilles heels. The economy is the main motivation for Americans, and this works in Republicans’ favor.

• Finally: October is usually a month of surprises in the American presidential elections. But since we have already had too many surprises in this election, we will have to wait and see if history repeats itself.