US ELECTIONS
1. It was a great week for the American Democrats. It’s been a long time since the Democratic Party had such a splendid week. Everything went well for them.
First, the surprise effect was unleashed in all its glory. Kamala Harris united the party; mobilized its leading figures; and introduced a new and incisive discourse, focused on justice and women’s rights. The protagonism and initiative are on her side. She almost made people forget the attack on Trump.
· Second, Kamala Harris put the Republicans on the defensive, without a strategy. Before, the strategy was Biden. Since there is no Biden now, there is no longer a strategy. With one aggravating factor: before, the problem was Biden’s age. Now, the old man on stage is Trump.
Third, Kamala Harris has changed the dynamics of the campaign. Before, the dynamics were in favor of the Republicans. Now they are in favor of the Democrats. The big proof is in the polls. In all of them, Kamala is doing better than Biden. The recovery is noticeable. It has been a long time since the Democrats had such an affirmative attitude.
2. None of this means that Kamala will win. But there is a new window of opportunity. Everything is open. Two questions will be decisive:
· Which vice-presidential candidate will Kamala Harris choose? It is a crucial choice. It will surely be a man, white and from one of the decisive states. The question remains as to who.
· What new strategy will the Republicans adopt? Right now they are literally “stuck” in the middle of the bridge. It remains to be seen how they will “get unstuck”. The future looks promising.
MONTENEGRO IN ANGOLA
1. The Prime Minister’s visit to Angola has a double meaning: political and economic. Politically, this visit takes place at a time when political relations between the two countries are at an excellent level. It is the best moment since Angola’s independence in 1975. The signal given is to enhance this reality.
2. In economic terms, this visit could mean the beginning of a new cycle. It is very necessary. The truth is that economic relations between Portugal and Angola have lost a lot of strength in recent years.
Angola is now the 9th destination for our exports. But ten years ago it was the 4th, after Spain, Germany and France. The Angolan market has lost strength.
The trade balance is favorable to Portugal (992 million euros in 2023). But trade in goods between the two countries – exports and imports – is at a very low value.
· Portuguese investment in Angola is also falling. It peaked in 2015 and has been falling almost continuously since then. It was once much higher than it is today.
3. All this is happening because the Angolan economy is going through a very weak period. We hope that this visit will help to relaunch economic relations between Portuguese and Angolan companies. A signal was given with the reinforcement of the credit line to support Portuguese investment in Angola. The results are awaited.
NEW IRS REDUCTION
1. This week there was controversy surrounding the enactment of the law that establishes a reduction in personal income tax. But it was all just a storm in a teacup. After all, the President and the Government did what they were supposed to do:
· Whether he agrees or disagrees with the law, the President could not fail to enact it. This is normal. Furthermore, if he vetoed it, it would be a useless veto. The law could be confirmed in the Assembly of the Republic. The PS and Chega have an absolute majority.
The Government also did what it had to do: it decided to change the withholding tax tables. It had no alternative. First, the law is valid for 2024. Second, if it did not do so, it would be accused of acting out of revenge, for disagreeing with the content of the law.
· Therefore, everything is normal. The rules were followed. Therefore, there will be a tax relief in September, worth 350 million euros, benefiting 3.2 million households.
2. Do the laws now enacted make the State Budget negotiations easier or more difficult? Financially, they make them more difficult. They cost hundreds of millions of euros. Therefore, there is less room for new expenses. But this is nothing new. It has been known since the laws were approved in June.
What this means is that the Government and the Socialist Party have little room for negotiation. The Government has less money to give. Especially since the State Budget will once again have a surplus. The Socialist Party has less room to ask for new spending increases. It already has a few million in advance. In sports terms, the Socialist Party starts the negotiation game winning 3-0 (IRS, tolls and VAT on electricity). Three laws approved against the government’s will. It can’t ask for much more.
· Politically, these laws even make it easier to approve the State Budget. The fact is that, with these laws, the PS is less able to vote against the State Budget. Voting against the State Budget would mean, in practice, voting against the laws that
He himself insisted on approving it and that only with the State Budget will they be fully implemented. Would anyone understand? Not even within the PS.
END OF TOLLS ON SCUT
1. Abolishing tolls is always a highly debatable process, especially for environmental reasons. Just look at the countries of northern Europe: they are richer than us and traditionally do not use tolls. They are introducing them now. But since it has been decided to abolish tolls, the process should at least be more selective. It was not.
· The intention was good. Ending tolls on the Ex SCUT for residents in the interior makes sense. A positive differentiation in favor of the interior is needed, which the EU itself authorizes.
The solution is bad because it will benefit everyone equally: those who are from the interior and those who are not. An English, Spanish or American tourist, with purchasing power greater than that of any Portuguese, will receive the same benefit as a resident. A benefit at the expense of the State Budget. In other words, our taxes. This is not fair.
· The numbers, according to experts, are not irrelevant: if the end of tolls were only for residents, the measure would cost ¼ of what it will cost (40 to 50 million euros).
2. A selective elimination could have another positive effect: the money saved could also allow for a discount on tolls in the suburban areas of Lisbon and Porto.
· Localities such as Rio Tinto, Valongo, Gondomar and others in Greater Porto; Sintra, Amadora, Loures and others in Greater Lisbon also have residents living with serious difficulties. They also deserve to have tolls reduced. If the AR had a more selective criterion, it would be fairer. And if it were fairer, it could benefit more people.
INVESTMENT IN FA
1. It is rare for a Council of Ministers to be dedicated to Defence and the Armed Forces. This happened this week. This shows the political weight of Minister Nuno Melo. It is important that Defence has a Minister with political weight. As for the measures taken, they are very fair:
First, it was urgent to improve the remuneration of the Armed Forces’ military personnel. Portugal is not managing to recruit the military personnel it needs, nor is it managing to retain those it already has in its ranks. Will this increase in salary change the situation? Let’s hope so.
Second, investing more in Defense is the rule within NATO. In Portugal or in any other EU country. After all, investing in Defense is not an extravagance. It is a necessity. In this matter, Europe is increasingly “stuck” between the Russian threat and American abandonment. Left to its own devices. Therefore, it has to loosen its purse strings.
· Third, it is essential to value the Armed Forces. They are an essential pillar of the nation. And they have been greatly undervalued in recent years.
· Finally, the measure announced regarding ex-combatants’ access to free medicines is fair.
2. Here is another serious increase in public spending. There is nothing to object to: it is absolutely necessary. Until now, it has been like this: either taxes are cut or spending is increased. But it is important to ask: when will we start cutting unnecessary state spending? State fat? Intermediate consumption? State-owned companies that make no sense within the State? The question is pertinent.
THE LUSO-BRAZILIAN TWINS
1. For many people, the CPI into the case of the Portuguese-Brazilian twins is more of the same. It has become something repetitive and reheated. To a certain extent, this is true. But there is a new doubt, recently raised, which, if confirmed, makes everything much more serious than the mere “connection”.
· According to what has been written, there was a Brazilian private insurance company that could and should have covered the health expenses of these children. Is this true or not? The CPI and the Public Prosecutor’s Office have a duty to investigate. This, indeed, is a serious doubt.
· And, in this case, why did Nuno Rebelo de Sousa intervene? After all, was it altruism or business? Another question that deserves to be answered.
2. The most important part of this week’s hearings was not the testimony of the collaborators in Belém. As expected, they confirmed that there was no favouritism. However, these are obviously partisan testimonies. The most relevant was the testimony of António Costa’s former Chief of Staff: Francisco André has nothing to do with the Presidency of the Republic and is not even part of the President’s personal or political relations. His testimony is therefore completely impartial and detached from the situation. And he came to state the following: that this case was treated like any other, without any favouritism, and that in São Bento it was not even known that the petitioner was the President’s son. It could not be clearer.
Source: www.jornaldenegocios.pt
