Medina’s appointment as a defendant in the Tutti Frutti operation is an exercise in laughter – Marques Mendes

THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

1. There are at least four very clear realities in the Middle East:

• The first is that Israel is overreacting. It had every right to retaliate, but it has long since gone beyond the bounds of what is reasonable.
• The second is that no one wants a ceasefire in Gaza. Hamas doesn’t want it, and neither does Netanyahu. People who want a ceasefire don’t assassinate the opposing party’s negotiator.
• The third is that we must distinguish between Israel’s interests and the interests of the Israeli Prime Minister. Israel is a sovereign country and has legitimate interests to defend. Netanyahu is using his position to prolong the war. With a ceasefire, he will have to face elections, which he risks losing, and he will have to face justice, which he risks being arrested.
• The fourth is that no one has the capacity to mediate conflicts. The US is in a power vacuum. The United Nations is irrelevant.

2. In conclusion: a ceasefire in Gaza is increasingly distant; and a regional conflict in the Middle East is increasingly close. Iran will not hesitate to retaliate. This is all very worrying.

A VENEZUELA E O PCP

1. What was predictable happened in the Venezuelan presidential elections: electoral fraud on the scale of the Torre de los Clérigos. That is why the authorities refuse to release the results of the polling stations; that is why there have been a series of arrests of opposition members; that is why innocent people have even been killed. And the countries that recognize this electoral farce are the usual ones: China, Russia, Cuba, Syria, Belarus, Nicaragua.

None of this is surprising. A dictatorship is always a dictatorship. Even when it pretends to be a democracy and agrees to hold elections. But these are not free elections. They are a sham of elections. Portugal saw the same thing in 1958, in the elections in which Humberto Delgado participated.

2. What is strange is the PCP’s attitude of welcoming Maduro’s false re-election. With all due respect, the PCP seems to have “gone crazy”.

• It has lost its shame. It was no longer enough to support Putin in the war in Ukraine. Now it is supporting the Maduro regime: a regime that forces millions of Venezuelans to leave the country due to lack of conditions; a regime that condemns its population to poverty; a regime that fills its prisons with opposition members. Clearly, the PCP is lost. It even got its ears pulled by the Venezuelan communists: doesn’t the PCP know what Maduro does to workers and trade unionists? That is the question from the PCV.
• After the lack of shame, comes the PCP’s tendency towards suicide. The PCP is committing political suicide. At an impressive rate. Not even its voters understand this support for the Putin and Maduro regimes. This is how, with such blindness, the PCP is digging its own grave.

PORTUGUESE INCOME

1. The INE released data on net Portuguese residents, municipality by municipality, for 2022, which gives food for thought:

• The net income of the Portuguese taxpayer (after deducting personal income tax) is very low: €10,679 per year; around €890 per month.
• There are huge discrepancies between the coast and the interior. In the 5 poorest municipalities (Tabuaço, Santa Marta de Penaguião, Cinfães, Valpaços and Resende), the average income per taxpayer is only €625 per month. Well below the national average.
• In the 5 richest municipalities (Oeiras, Lisbon, Alcochete, Cascais and Coimbra), the average income is practically double: €1,266 per month.
• AML is a special case: Oeiras is the richest municipality; Amadora has an average income 26% lower than that of Oeiras. And there are two parishes in Lisbon – Lumiar and Parque das Nações – where residents have incomes well above those of Oeiras, the richest municipality in the country.

2. There are, for now, two conclusions to be drawn from this portrait:

• The first is that there really is a problem of cohesion within the country. There is a big difference between the rich coast and the poor interior. This is nothing new. What is new is that as the years go by, inequalities are not corrected.
• The second is that the situation may improve in 2024. This year, there is a tax relief that has not been seen for a long time: in the order of 1.5 billion euros. This is a credit to the previous and current governments. The net income of the poorest people will see a significant improvement.

PRR DELAYED

1. The PRR Monitoring Committee, chaired by academic and independent Pedro Dominguinhos, put its finger on the sore spot: the PRR situation is almost a national emergency, given the worrying or critical state of several of its projects.

2. There are three truths that are unquestionable:

• The first: if Portugal loses one Euro from the RRP it will be a shame. It means that we were not able to take full advantage of a historic opportunity. But that can happen. The implementation rate left by the previous government was scandalously low (21% at the end of March). It is true that we have already improved significantly (32% implementation in July). But the challenge remains great.
• The second: we only have two years to approve 316 measures and reforms. That is a huge number. Without that, Portugal will not be able to receive the 12 billion euros that are still missing. There are a lot of demands to be met in such a short space of time.
• Third: in order not to lose funds, exceptional measures must be taken. It will be necessary to: reprogram the RRP, replacing investments; simplify the public procurement regime; make recourse to the courts more flexible, probably including the intervention of the Court of Auditors; even resort to Artificial Intelligence. It was the Minister for Cohesion who said this, and he is one of the greatest experts in Portugal on structural funds.

THE FINANCE MINISTER’S INTERVIEW

1. The Finance Minister gave an interesting interview to Público/RR. The main emphasis was on the idea that the distortion of the government’s program could lead to elections. However, I do not think this was the most relevant point of the interview. A statement like this is part of the State Budget’s negotiating tactic. Each party, on the eve of negotiations, exerts its own pressure. The most important aspects are two other aspects:

• The first is a first-hand update: the 2025 State Budget will have a new budget surplus. This is the first time the government has said so categorically. And it is an essential commitment. Returning to deficits would be political suicide.
• The second is also new. The government is open to negotiating the IRS Jovem and the IRC, calibrating the two measures. By saying this, the MF is clearing the negotiation environment. It is right. These are the two most critical issues in the negotiation. The country needs a Budget and not political crises.

2. Furthermore, being left without a State Budget and governing by twelfths would be a social disaster. It is important to remember the potential consequences:

• Governing by twelfths would mean that teachers, police and military personnel would not receive the salary improvements and supplements that were agreed for 2025.
• Governing by twelfths would mean that in 2025 there would be no increases in the public sector.
• Governing by twelfths would mean that local authorities would not have an increase in resources.
• Governing by twelfths would mean that Misericórdias, social institutions and disability support institutions would not have any increases or updates in support in 2025.

MEDINA ARGUIDO: ALL FRUITS

1. I will start with Operation Tutti Frutti, which already has several defendants, involves figures from the PS and PSD and concerns possible illicit business within the Lisbon City Council. To say two things:

• The first is a classic: delay. After seven years of investigation, there should have been people on trial by now. After all, there is not a single one about to go to trial.
• The second is that I have no doubt that there were many connivances, favors, deals and illegalities in this process. With the involvement of figures from the PS and PSD. Therefore, despite being late, this process must go ahead. Whatever the cost. No matter who it hurts. Justice must be done.

2. As for Fernando Medina, I think his indictment as a defendant, based on the facts that have come to light, is an exercise in laughter. No one can take this decision seriously.

• If Medina is being held accountable for having given a subsidy to a sports club, then there are thousands of mayors across the country, from all parties, who must be held accountable. Let’s use common sense.
• Finally, how is Fernando Medina named as a defendant if the decision to grant such a subsidy was made by the entire Lisbon City Council and he was not even at the meeting on the day of the decision? Some decisions are very difficult to understand.