The meeting of Israel’s National Security Cabinet announced to take place on Tuesday (26/11) to sign the ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah will not be as easy as many parties involved make it appear.
Americans who are usually pragmatic note that for an agreement to be reached both must sign. And Israeli media say the council will approve the text of the agreement tomorrow. That is, the details. Because with the truce agreement in Israel, in principle, only the far-right and ultra-nationalists disagree, causing concern to Netanyahu about how he will present it inside the country.
A 60-day ceasefire is broadly envisaged to end fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah. During these 6 days, the Israeli armed forces will withdraw from South Lebanon, where the Lebanese Army will return. Hezbollah’s presence will be limited north of the Litani River.
“We think we’ve gotten to that point where we’re close,” said US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby. But he added that “we are not there yet.”
The US and France – a longtime ally of Lebanon – are participating in the ceasefire process.
“The Darkest Hour”
It is often said that the darkest hour is before dawn. That is why the exchange of fire between Israel and Hezbollah has intensified as the two sides haggle over the final details of the deal.
On Sunday alone, some 250 missiles were fired at Israel from Lebanon, most of which were intercepted, while the Israeli air force continued to carry out airstrikes on suspected Hezbollah positions and weapons depots in Beirut and elsewhere. The same thing happened today.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is said to have agreed “in principle” and the deputy speaker of the Lebanese parliament, Elia Bou Saab, said, according to Reuters, that there are no longer any “serious obstacles” to the ceasefire.
And yet they exist
A major sticking point – who will monitor the ceasefire – was theoretically resolved, he said, by the formation of a five-nation commission, which includes France as a member and is chaired by the US.
Security cabinet members are expected to hold a vote on the deal. Everyone says the parties are “very close to signature”. Saudi news agency Asharq Al-Awsat reported on Monday that US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron will announce a 60-day ceasefire in Lebanon on Tuesday.
According to Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, the agreement allows Israel to “retain the right to neutralize any threat in southern Lebanon.”
This is one of the serious obstacles. American and Israeli officials say the other, the severing of the link between the ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, has also been overcome.
They also say Israel’s demand for freedom of action against Hezbollah’s efforts to rearm remains a sticking point.
A senior Israeli official familiar with the US-brokered talks told Haaretz that the most significant change was Hezbollah’s agreement to the idea of a ceasefire in Lebanon in principle without first demanding a ceasefire in Gaza. Hezbollah had held this position since joining the war on October 8, 2023.
American pressures
The senior Israeli official warned that this position could change if a deal is not reached because of other issues, and could become an obstacle again. “If they see that their flexibility on this matter has not helped to reach an agreement, they may decide to go back to their previous position,” he explained.
The US has moved along the same lines, saying that if the agreement is not concluded now, the American factor will disengage and only reappear after Donald Trump takes office. It’s the last chance, an American official said.
Israel has every reason to fear that Hezbollah will seek to rearm and re-establish itself in South Lebanon, because there the Lebanese army, which is neither reliable nor stronger than Hezbollah, will seek to contain it. He therefore wants to have the freedom to act when he finds any violations of the text to be agreed upon.
Israel’s difficulties
That is why it is asking for written guarantees from the US about its right to act against violations of the agreement. He also insists that the US should be involved in overseeing the implementation of the agreement.
Lebanon insists on a complex oversight mechanism that includes its own dysfunctional military. Even assuming the Lebanese parliament approves the deal, there are several internal obstacles that could delay its implementation.
And one of them is the hard-line ministers who echo the positions of the extreme right and the positions of the equally hard-line residents of Northern Israel. Now that the Israeli military has dealt such blows to Hezbollah they consider a ceasefire agreement treasonous.
Source: www.enikos.gr
