The Israeli army waited last Friday for its Prime Minister, Beniamin Netanyahu, to finish his defiant speech before the UN General Assembly to carry out a devastating attack on the Hizbullah headquarters in Beirut and behead the Lebanese Shiite guerrilla.
Israel announced that Hasan Nasrallah, leader of Hizbullah since 1992, the year in which Israel also assassinated his predecessor, was killed in that bombing. The Shiite militia confirmed the news hours later. After the disappearance of the general secretary of the Party of God, the immediate future of the region may hang in the balance depending on the retaliation carried out by Hizbullah and if Iran decides to openly get involved in the conflict. That is why the entire Middle East is holding its breath in fear that this escalation will lead to a regional war with unforeseeable consequences.
History repeats itself. As in 2006, Israeli aviation has devastated the southern neighborhoods of Beirut, but this time the consequences are much worse. The attacks on the leadership of Hizbullah – a State within the Lebanese State – have beheaded it and are now forcing it to look for new leadership to overcome the harsh blows suffered, which have weakened it. The Shiite militia and Iran can choose to maintain the sustained confrontation of recent weeks, but it remains to be seen if they have the capacity and will to take the conflict to the limit, since Hizbullah has suffered significant setbacks these days both in its structure and logistics as in his leadership.
Iran – whose supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, yesterday asked all Muslims to confront Israel – also has the dilemma of whether to raise the level of confrontation with Israel or prefer to opt for a certain containment – beyond the inflamed rhetoric – in view of the low hours it goes through. An open war with Israel is not in Tehran’s interest because that would mean it would also have to confront the United States.
The death of the Hizbullah leader could provoke a regional war escalation
Since the simultaneous explosion of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to members of Hizbullah on the 18th, the increase in Israeli air attacks against the Shiite militia in Beirut and southern Lebanon has been constant, responded to by Hizbullah with the launch of drones and missiles in northern Israel. In parallel, the Hebrew army has been accumulating men, tanks and artillery on the border with Lebanon for days. The big question is if and when this will translate into a military land invasion. The objective of this operation would be to expel Hizbullah and create a security zone of about 40 kilometers in southern Lebanon to guarantee the safe return to their homes of the 60,000 Israelis displaced from their towns for months by the militia’s bombings. Shia.
If this Israeli ground invasion ends up taking place, it would increase the risk of a regional conflict given that Iran, even before Nasrallah’s death, had already declared that it would not abandon its Hizbullah patrons. Netanyahu’s warmongering speech at the UN, rejecting any proposal for a truce and explaining that he only contemplates military victory at any price, regardless of the destruction it causes and the civilian victims it causes, suggests that there will be a ground offensive in the south. from Lebanon.
But Israel must also carefully calculate the consequences of such a decision because it has three simultaneous war fronts open: Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon. The first is about to turn one year old and, although it has lost media focus, the fighting continues and Hamas has not yet been eliminated. In the West Bank, clashes have grown in recent months, as have retaliation operations by the Israeli army. And as for Lebanon, a low-intensity conflict that has been going on for decades seems to be about to break out definitively. Furthermore, Israel carries out surgical operations punctually in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
We will have to see how the country and the army endure this wear and tear, and for how long. Netanyahu, emboldened by international inaction and US support, and reinforced by the disappearance of Nasrallah, is prepared to go all the way. His popularity has risen in the polls and his political future depends on the war being unending, especially now that Hizbullah is weakened and he is convinced that Iran is not in a position to counterattack.
Uncertainty over the level of Iran’s response and the now weakened Shiite militia
The extent of Hizbullah and Iran’s response to the death of Hasan Nasrallah and an eventual Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon will be decisive in gauging whether the Middle East may be on the verge of a regional war.
Source: www.lavanguardia.com
