The impact of climate change on current and future migrations around the world attracted significant attention from the public and decision-makers during the past decade. A new study led by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) has provided the first comprehensive analysis of how climate factors – particularly drought and aridity – affect internal migration.
The new study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, used micro-data from censuses from 72 countries between 1960 and 2016 to provide the world’s first assessment of how environmental stress affects migration within national borders.
It is overlooked that, as influence grows stronger climate changemore and more populations will face pressure to seek better living conditions.
IIASA analyzes showed that droughts and aridization affect migration between subnational regions within the country. It is most pronounced in areas that depend on agriculture and rural areas, where livelihoods are very vulnerable to changes in climate conditions.
The impacts of drought and aridization are, for example, strongest in parts of Africa, the Middle East, South America, South Asia and Southern Europe, where agricultural lifestyles are present and where the climate is already dry. In these regions, the combination of economic crisis and environmental challenges creates strong incentives for migration.
In addition to regional differences, the study also documents large heterogeneities in migration patterns among population groups. In less developed countries, younger working-age adults (15-45 years) with intermediate levels of education are most likely to move in response to drought and increased aridity. In wealthier countries, older populations, regardless of education levels, show stronger migration patterns.
“Our work highlights the need for policies that address both the causes of migration and the consequences for destination regions. Adequate infrastructure, health services, and social support systems are critical in urban areas that increasingly absorb climate change-induced migrants,” says co-author Guy Abel, a researcher in the Migration and Sustainable Development Research Group at IIASA.
Although the study represents a major advance in understanding the link between climate change and internal migration, the authors acknowledge challenges due to limited and incomparable data on migration.
Raja Mutarak, a co-author in the Migration and Sustainable Development Research Group at IIASA, emphasizes that shaping migration trends will require more comprehensive data and continued research to develop targeted interventions and policy solutions that address the complex relationship between environmental factors and human mobility.
Source: energetskiportal.rs
