The asteroid Apophis has the scientific community very worriedcould collide with Earth in 2029, the future of humanity is threatened, we need an Armageddon-style mission to protect ourselves, and so on. I don’t need to explain this enough for you to know what I’m talking about, do I? Yes, it has happened again, only this time we’re not even talking about an immediate “threat”, as happened with 2024 MK, 2023 CJ1, 2009 JF1 and 2011 ES4, among many others, but one that will take place in 2029.
For those who don’t know what I’m talking about, in the last few hours there has been a proliferation of news and posts on social media that They warn of the asteroid, 2004 MN4, also known as asteroid 99942 and Apophis (in reference to the snake that embodied evil in Egyptian mythology) could collide with Earth on April 13, 2029And in this case we are talking about an asteroid with the necessary dimensions to pose a formidable threat to life on our planet.
Since its identification back in 2004, Apophis has been included in the lists of the most dangerous asteroids for our planetalthough that does not mean that there is any certainty that it will eventually collide. These lists are used to determine which objects need to be monitored most closely, in case of possible events that could alter their orbits, which could be dangerous.
Prediction of the effect of Earth’s gravity on the orbit of Apophis, in its approach in April 2029. You can see the full animation here. Credit: ESA.
And why is Apophis being talked about now? It has been known for some time that it will approach our planet again in the next few years, more precisely on December 29, 2027, September 12, 2028, and the date previously mentioned, April 13, 2029. The main difference between this last date and the previous ones has to do with the distance at which it will approach. In the following table you can clearly see the reason for the fears:
| Date | Distance |
| December 29, 2027 | 43,923,795 kilometers |
| September 12, 2028 | 38,381,694 kilometers |
| April 13, 2029 | 38,012 kilometers |
Indeed, the distance at which it will approach (and in this case it does make more sense to dispense with the quotation marks) in 2029 forces us to pay special attention to its evolution during the next few years, since any change in its current orbit, however small, can substantially modify it, which would force us to recalculate its route a posteriori, to reassess the risks. In other words, it is important to observe it very carefully. And that is because We are talking about an asteroid of more than considerable dimensions, with an estimated diameter of 335 meters..
The provoked collision of DART with Dimorphos, in September 2022, has served to demonstrate the enormous impact that an eventuality of this type can have (collision, explosion, etc.) in the orbit of an asteroid with a diameter of around 160 meters, a little less than half that of Apophis, from which we can deduce that a circumstance of this type, as well as others, such as the gravitational influence of the bodies it approaches, can also have effects in this sense.
Observations of Apophis carried out in 2021. Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech y NSF/AUI/GBO.
This brings me back to the question I posed earlier, why is this asteroid being talked about now? Because The European Space Agency has announced a project to assess the effects of the Earth’s atmosphere on Apophis when it approaches Earth in 2029.for which the RAMSES ship will be used. Thus describes the mission the ESA:
«ESA’s RAMSES spacecraft will rendezvous with Apophis before it passes by Earth and will accompany the asteroid during the flyby to observe how it is deformed and changed by our planet’s gravity.
For the first time in history, nature is bringing us one and performing the experiment itself. All we need to do is watch as Apophis is stretched and compressed by the intense tidal forces that can trigger landslides and other disturbances and reveal new material from beneath the surface.»
Thus, although some media speak of “enormous concern” in the scientific community, the truth is that the European Space Agency claims that it is a unique opportunity of great scientific valueas it will provide first-hand information that will undoubtedly be useful for better refining calculations on the paths of asteroids that approach any celestial body capable of affecting them due to its gravity.
So, in short, Apophis’ approach to Earth in 2029 does not entail a risk of collisionThere is consensus among the scientific community that it will pass close by, but nothing more. And, thanks to the RAMSES mission, it will be an exceptional opportunity to obtain first-hand information of enormous value.
Opening image: ESA. / More information on Apophis’ past and future close approaches to Earth: JPS-CalTech-NASA.
Source: www.muycomputer.com
