Seven months have passed since Kim Jong-un declared the ‘two-state theory’. During that time, North Korea has denied the nation and unification (deleted related terms and symbols), committed absurd acts of terrorism against our people by spreading sewage, and openly and secretly supported Putin’s anti-peace war internationally.
Finally, last month, Putin was invited to Pyongyang (June 19) to restore the de facto military alliance and reach an agreement on comprehensive cooperation in each field. In addition, the 10th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee of the Party (June 28-July 1) was convened to discuss and decide on the outline for future policy implementation.
However, North Korea’s moves, which seemed to be pressing hard on the accelerator, have recently shown signs of somewhat moderating, drawing attention. Representative examples include: 1) non-convening of the Supreme People’s Assembly, 2) Kim Jong-un’s on-site guidance of a tourism industry construction zone, 3) mixing Kim Jong-un’s badge with those of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, 4) Kim Yo-jong’s more blatant threats against the South, and 5) the chain defection of diplomats overseas.
Supreme People’s Assembly not yet convened
Usually, after the party plenary session, the Supreme People’s Assembly is convened to legally and institutionally back up the conference’s conclusions. However, ▲there is no movement toward the election of the Supreme People’s Assembly, whose five-year term expired in March, or ▲there is no sign of the 14th one-point meeting being held. ▲There is only news that local party and cabinet plenary sessions were held to discuss follow-up measures.
The issue of constitutional revision (including the “clarification of new borders”) is one that needs to be dealt with urgently, as Kim Jong-un emphasized at the Party plenary session late last year and the Supreme People’s Assembly early this year, as well as again at the Party plenary session in late June, that “the Standing Committee of the Supreme People’s Assembly must revise the socialist constitution and further elevate the dignity of the state.”
However, it is noteworthy that the Supreme People’s Assembly, which has the authority to enact laws including the Constitution and approve organization and personnel, continues to be postponed. This suggests that North Korea has not yet completed a comprehensive review of issues with significant repercussions, such as the determination of borders based on the “two-state theory” and follow-up measures after the declaration.
Kim Jong-un’s unusual economic inspection
Kim Jong-un’s main destination this year was the military sector. The main purpose was to encourage the production of military supplies to develop various new missiles and to cover the smuggling of conventional weapons to Russia. However, recently, he has been shifting his focus to inspecting the civilian economy, such as large-scale construction sites in Samjiyeon (Ryanggang Province) and Wonsan-Kalma District (Gangwon Province).
Samjiyon and Wonsan-Kalma District were the top priority projects for Kim Jong-un, who studied abroad in Switzerland, to create a new economic development model after taking power. However, development projects were sluggish due to prolonged sanctions against North Korea for its nuclear and missile development and border controls due to COVID-19.
Kim Jong-un, during his two-day on-site guidance in Samjiyon City from July 11, ordered the Vice Premier, the Minister of State Construction Supervision and other relevant officials to be held accountable for “ideological laxity and dereliction of duty” and worked hard to double the speed of construction. On July 16, during his inspection of the Wonsan-Kalma Coastal Tourism Business Zone, he emphasized “the construction of a world-class coastal tourist city” and set a goal of “opening in May next year.”
This trend is likely to have been influenced by a combination of factors, including ▲the current situation in which North Korea has achieved its nuclear and missile development goals to a certain extent, ▲the all-out closeness in North Korea-Russia relations (promise of support for necessary materials such as high-quality interior materials and a large-scale dispatch of tourists after completion), and ▲signs of the return of President Trump to the United States. It also provides a glimpse into Kim Jong-un’s will to overcome the current sanctions against North Korea and economic difficulties through the “tourism industry” along with the construction of 50,000 housing units in Pyongyang and the 20×10 policy for local development.
“Comrade Kim Jong Un said that the Paektu Mountain Tourist and Cultural Zone, which will be opened in the near future, will certainly become a tourist destination that even friendly foreign friends can feel a unique charm… He said that our country, which is bordered by the sea on both its east and west sides and has many beautiful scenic spots on the East Sea including Mt. Kumgang, Mt. Chilbo, Majon, Kumya, Riwon and Yeombunjin, should concentrate on rationally utilizing the abundant coastal tourist resources in the tourism sector in the future.” (July 14/July 18 Korean Central News Agency)
In the future, it is expected that Kim Jong-un will use this independent tourism industry promotion policy as a key location (sacred ground) to propagandize the legitimacy of the ‘two-state theory’ he advocated by completely differentiating it from the policies of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il based on inter-Korean cooperation (joint development through budgetary and technical support from South Korea).
Mixed use of Kim Jong-un badges and Kim Il-sung/Kim Jong-il badges
The 10th Plenary Session of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers’ Party of Korea was a decisive turning point in the idolization of Kim Jong-un. This was because all participants wore a “Kim Jong-un badge” instead of the so-called “double-headed badge” featuring portraits of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il.
However, if you look at recent photos of Prime Minister Kim Dok-hoon, Party Organization Secretary Cho Yong-won, and other officials, you can see that they are sometimes wearing the ‘double badge’ and sometimes the ‘Kim Jong-un badge’. This is evaluated as ▲ evidence that North Korea is adjusting the speed of idolizing Kim Jong-un alone, ▲ dispelling suspicions of erasing the previous generation, and ▲ a policy of idolization that naturally increases Kim Jong-un’s authority. It can be called the so-called ‘official succession and covert differentiation tactic’.
Kim Yo-jong’s increasingly blatant threats against the South
On July 16, Kim Yo-jong again raised the issue of North Korean defector groups scattering leaflets toward the North, threatening, “You will have to be prepared for a terrible and shocking price. If the petty and dirty acts of the South Korean scum continue, we will inevitably have to change our response method.” After that, North Korea carried out its eighth sewage balloon attack on the 18th, and again sent down sewage balloons on the 21st in response to our military resuming loudspeaker broadcasts toward the North after 39 days.
In order for Kim Jong-un’s ‘two-state theory’ to secure legitimacy and momentum, an external enemy, South Korea, is essential. Therefore, North Korea will continue to make moderate provocations at a moderate level for the time being. However, in the summer, the southeast wind blows mainly toward the north. The weather conditions are not suitable for North Korea to launch sewage balloons. However, the upper air currents are very changeable. When the appropriate weather conditions are formed, they may carry out sewage-spreading terrorism in areas with a large ripple effect, such as the skies over Seoul or Incheon Airport, while also exploring online and offline gray zone provocations (terrorism against crowded facilities, paralysis of computer networks, etc.). This is the so-called ‘tactic of promoting conflict between the South and the South by creating a sense of fear of war.’
Serial defections of diplomats stationed overseas
Recently, defections of North Korean diplomats (and their families) have been continuing in Cuba, France, China, and other places. Diplomats are a profession that ▲contains a sense of comparison, unlike ordinary citizens, and ▲know in detail the status and activities of fellow diplomats in South Korea, such as former Ambassador to the UK Tae Yong-ho, who defected first. ▲Considering the possibility of execution if recalled or the future of their children, they decide to defect.
In particular, it is assessed that discontent and fear are playing a major role in North Korea’s recent denial of the nation and unification based on the ‘two-state theory’ and its public punishment of young people who watch and distribute Korean Wave content (including recalling overseas students for education).
Conclusion
Recently, some in Korea have been talking about the early collapse of the North Korean regime, citing abnormal signs such as internal chaos caused by Kim Jong-un’s anti-national “two-state theory,” poor economic performance, extreme punishment for watching Korean Wave videos, and various negative sentiments in the lower classes of society.
It is true that North Korea has increased its instability factors as its internal and external situations change. We should change North Korea by attacking its vulnerabilities in a more multifaceted way. However, we should refrain from immediately linking this phenomenon to signs of regime collapse. This is because Kim Jong-un is moving with his own plans (challenge and speed control) such as the ‘two-state theory’, signing a North Korea-Russia treaty, idolizing and strengthening control over the independent country, promoting the tourism industry, and the 20×10 policy for local development, and he can also use the provocation card against the South to manipulate the situation if necessary.
Rather, what we should pay attention to in recent North Korean trends is that Kim Jong-un publicly ordered the ‘opening of the Wonsan Kalma Coastal Tourist Zone in May next year.’ This is because it suggests that Kim Jong-un’s eyes are on ▲ going beyond the advancement of nuclear weapons and missiles to revitalizing the tourism industry (economy), ▲ the launch of the new U.S. administration in January 2025, the 80th anniversary of the founding of the party in October, and even the 9th Party Congress (January 2026/possible early holding).
As Biden gave up on running for the Democratic Party presidential nomination (July 22), Trump, who is expected to win the November election, presented a “blueprint for North Korean development” to Kim Jong-un at the Singapore US-North Korea summit in June 2018, and in his recent acceptance speech for the Republican nomination, he emphasized, “I got along well with Kim Jong-un of North Korea. It’s good to get along with someone who has a lot of nuclear weapons. When we get back, I’ll get along well with Kim Jong-un. He’ll probably want to see me, and I think he’ll miss me.”
Accordingly, the Yoon Seok-yeol government should also prepare countermeasures for various scenarios related to not only visible and tangible provocations such as the sewage balloon terrorism, but also North Korea’s surprise provocations both online and offline aimed at maximizing public anxiety and division of public opinion, and the expected attitudes of North Korea and neighboring countries after the U.S. presidential election (including measures to respond to North Korea’s full-scale overseas tourism attraction project). Preventive security and immediate response are more important than ever.
Ubiquitous – National unity – Proactive action – A drop of water wears away a stone!
※Columns written by external writers may not be in line with the editorial direction of this newspaper.
Source: www.dailynk.com
