‘Trump’s back!’. Trump won the 47th presidential election in the United States, which was held with the world’s attention focused, and was spectacularly rolled back to the White House. Considering his inclinations, actions, and presidential campaign process, it is certain that his domestic and foreign policy stance will be “No Biden based on America First.”
What is Kim Jong-un thinking after hearing this news? Although he is in a forbidden romance with Putin, the bromance (brother+romance) with Trump that cannot be resolved is probably hovering over his head. Will Kim Jong-un send a congratulatory message (love letter)? There is a high probability that it will be sent first. Because you don’t want to miss out on a good opportunity. So will Trump respond? Of course I will. Even though he dumped me first, he always said that he wanted to get back together. So shall we meet soon? I don’t think that’s true. They are both seeing other people so they will take some time off.
Trump’s North Korea Policy
Many experts at home and abroad predict a shift in North Korea policy toward a negotiation stance based on Trump’s experience meeting with Kim Jong-un and his remarks during the election process: “Kim Jong-un yes, Biden no.” Of course, we must keep all possibilities open and think about them. However, considering the internal and external environment that the United States faces, the author believes that policy toward North Korea is likely to focus on fundamental exploration rather than rapid and drastic changes.
Trump and Kim Jong-un held three summit meetings and exchanged 27 love letters. We know each other well enough to know each other. So that’s the problem. ‘Bromance Season 2’ is not as easy as the first meeting. Isn’t the two people’s honest feelings not about being in the same room, but having different dreams?
Trump is not the Trump of 2018, and his main concern is not the North Korea issue. The immediate tasks that the U.S. must solve first now are revitalizing the economy, the Middle East and Russo-Russian war, and the U.S.-China hegemony competition. It would be easier to receive the Nobel Peace Prize, which Trump desperately wants, for resolving conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine rather than for North Korea’s nuclear weapons. This is the reason why the goal of ‘denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula’ was not included in the presidential election pledge.
Therefore, while the Trump administration continues to maintain the goal of North Korea’s denuclearization in accordance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), it has time to spare and is using a “complex negotiation tactic toward North Korea” in the nature of “denuclearization + disarmament talks” behind the scenes to bring North Korea to the negotiating table. It seems that they will continue to search for tricks to lead the way.
Kim Jong-un’s policy toward the United States
The environment North Korea faces is also far from dialogue. ▲As can be seen from the unveiling of a uranium enrichment base and the launch of the Hwasong-19 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before the US presidential election ▲For the time being, the ‘two hostile countries theory’ based on romance with Putin is fully established, leading to a Russo-Russian war. We will focus on the success of troop dispatch and the advancement of strategic weapons.
Even if North Korea wants to put pressure on the United States, it is highly likely that it will focus on creating an environment through fighting and behind-the-scenes talks while taking the time until the first half of next year, when the remainder of Biden’s term and Trump’s new lineup are planned. The biggest topic in U.S.-North Korea relations is, of course, North Korea’s nuclear program. However, the possibility that North Korea will transition to denuclearization is almost zero. North Korea has legislated a nuclear state, ordered Kim Jong-un to improve its nuclear capabilities, disclosed uranium enrichment facilities, acted as a breakwater between China and Russia, dispatched troops to the Russo-Russian war, and test-fired the Hwasong-19 type intercontinental ballistic missile (claimed to be the ‘final version’). It gives more weight to the possibility of not giving up nuclear weapons.
Accordingly, North Korea is fighting to advance its nuclear capabilities and seize advantageous negotiating positions → When conditions are met, disarmament talks based on the ‘two hostile states theory’ (Korea passing/United States Bongnam) → U.S. President visits Pyongyang, acknowledges North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons → Establishes diplomatic relations, etc. While assuming the scenario of , we will continue to demand the suspension of ROK-US joint military exercises and the withdrawal of the UNC and US forces in Korea.
In the short term, it appears that the focus will be on exploration until the first half of 2025, and there is a possibility that new policy changes, such as the ‘Again U.S.-North Korea Summit’, will be sought in the second half of the year. By this time, the formation of the new U.S. administration has been somewhat structured, and there is great momentum due to the 80th anniversary of the founding of the party (October 10), the completion of the five-year economic and defense development plan, and preparations for the 9th party congress (January 2026). ▲In the meantime, Japan can be used as a substitute. This is because the new Prime Minister Ishiba, like his predecessors Abe and Kishida, wants dialogue with Kim Jong-un, Japan is the weakest link in the triangular alliance between Korea, the United States, and Japan, and compensation worth $30 billion is also on the horizon. In any case, it is estimated that the U.S. and North Korea will seek a change in policy at least after the ceasefire in the Russo-Russian war becomes imminent.
Conclusion
As we have seen so far, North Korea will engage in a tense battle with the United States while completely ignoring us (‘Korea passing/transferring to South Korea’) based on the ‘two hostile countries theory’. The United States is also expected to focus on resolving pending domestic and international issues, including the economy, for the time being and make fundamental arguments and suggestions to North Korea.
Therefore, the Yoon Seok-yeol government must take a long-term approach and build a strong security posture and implement pragmatic diplomacy on all fronts. Expected conflict factors between South Korea and the United States, such as the renegotiation of defense cost sharing, which some are concerned about, are not very serious issues, considering the growing national prestige of the Republic of Korea, the heightened national status, and the need for current and future cooperation between the two countries. Rather, it could be a window of opportunity.
In particular, the issue of taking advantage of the fact that Trump is a ‘master of deals’ to advance Korea-US relations to a higher level (e.g., allowing South Korea to possess its own nuclear weapons conditionally) should be carefully reviewed and pursued. To achieve this, a list-up of related T/F organizations and pending issues is a priority. It goes without saying that the dangers of North Korea’s strategic strategy of unification with the U.S. are being made known through special envoy dispatches, public diplomacy, etc. (‘communication between South Korea and the U.S. before and after all contacts’).
Meanwhile, apart from strengthening cooperation with the United States, ▲we should continue to urge the North Korean authorities to respond favorably to the ‘Inter-Korean Dialogue Consultative Body’ proposed in the August 15 Unification Doctrine, and ▲if necessary, the proposal for a ‘summit’ should also be considered as an option. Although there are many theories about the uselessness of high-level talks, it is important in terms of sending a message to North Korea, the United States, and the public to actively manage the situation on the Korean Peninsula beyond practical work and at the level of governance during crises such as North Korea’s filth balloon terrorism and the deployment of troops to the Russo-U.S. war. It’s work. Isn’t there a saying that goes, ‘Heaven helps those who help themselves’ and ‘Offense is the best defense’?
Yu Fei Mu-hwan-National Opinion Integration-Main Action Committee-Jeoksu Cheonseok (滴水穿石)!
※Columns written by external authors may not match our editorial direction.
Source: www.dailynk.com
