Kim Jong-un has been making unreasonable moves one after another this year, and in the end, he does not hesitate to make the devil’s bet by sacrificing young blood. Starting with the ‘two hostile countries’ theory, which denies the ancestors’ nationality and unification policy, they carried out inhumane and abnormal filth balloon terrorism against South Korea, manipulated the drone leaflet distribution incident that infiltrated the sky above Kim Jong-un’s office in Pyongyang, and eventually led to the Russo-Russian War. They even made a ‘decision to send troops’, selling soldiers as bullet cannons.
Some even compare Kim Jong-un’s deployment of troops to the late President Park Chung-hee’s deployment to the Vietnam War in the late 1960s and even evaluate him as having “crossed the Rubicon”, which is simply an absurd statement and “fell into the Rubicon (Dnipro) River.” ” seems to be a more accurate expression. Kim Jong-un may try to benchmark President Park, who is synonymous with the development dictatorship and modernization success story, but everything, including the values pursued, leadership, and environment, is as different as heaven and earth. They look similar on the outside, but if you take a closer look inside, they are 100% different.
Therefore, it is true that all of our citizens, including the government, strongly criticize Kim Jong-un’s anti-peace and anti-humanity actions. However, you must keep this in mind. Kim Jong-un cannot have made the decision without knowing this fact, and since the die has already been cast, “the war will be decided based on capabilities (strategy and tactics), regardless of right or wrong.”
dispatch background
President Park proudly dispatched troops with the consent of the people and the international community after a long preparation process to realize values such as liberal democracy, national security, and economic development and to create national interests. However, in order to serve his own interests rather than the country or his family, Kim Jong-un entered into an alliance with Putin, who has become an outcast in the international community, and engaged in mercenary dealings by secretly sending troops while deceiving the North Korean people and the world. is doing Another big difference is that the national power of the United States and Russia, which requested troops to be dispatched, are no match for each other. According to reports, at the time of the Vietnam War, America’s GDP reached 40% of world GDP, and Russia’s GDP is only 1.5% as of 2023.
The reason Kim Jong-un decided to send troops in the face of international condemnation and strengthened sanctions was because his interests (needs) coincided with those of Putin. ① First, the basis for dispatching troops was the provision in Article 4 of the so-called ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Treaty’ signed last June that “providing mutual military assistance in the event of an armed invasion.” ②Next, Putin’s desperation can be said to be the first driving force. This is because Putin wants to quickly achieve victory with North Korea’s help as the war has already passed 2 years and 10 months and ceasefire talks are expected after the U.S. presidential election. ③Meanwhile, Kim Jong-un is equally desperate. In a situation where there appears to be little chance that sanctions against North Korea will be lifted unless the all-in nuclear and missile policy is changed since taking office, an adventurous bet was necessary to solidify the regime through the early establishment of the so-called ‘two hostile states’ theory. It will.
Impact on the Kim Jong-un regime
The impact of Kim Jong-un’s deployment of troops on the system has both positive and negative aspects. First, on the positive side, North Korea-Russia relations can develop to the level of a blood-sharing alliance like the ROK-US alliance and serve as a system safety net. Second, it is a window of opportunity for Kim Jong-un, who has suffered from foreign currency shortages due to economic sanctions, to raise government funds. The cost of dispatching 12,000 troops is estimated to be about 720 billion won per year, and there are predictions that the scale of deployment could increase to 30,000 to 100,000 troops. Third, it will be an opportunity to upgrade nuclear and missile capabilities to the next level by transferring cutting-edge weapon technology, such as reconnaissance satellites and nuclear-powered submarines, that North Korea is interested in. Fourth, the modernization of aging conventional forces, including tanks and fighter jets, cannot be left out. Fifth, it is a great reward for the military, which has not gained practical combat experience since the Korean War, to seize the opportunity to accumulate modern regular warfare know-how. Sixth, it will be an opportunity to reduce excessive dependence on China (North Korea-China trade volume is $2,721.1 million, or 98.3% of total trade volume).
However, Kim Jong-un’s decision to send troops has no justification. Not confident. What’s worse, did the North Korean military plan to fight wearing Russian military uniforms and carrying Russian-made guns and ID cards? They cannot avoid criticism that they are nothing more than a collusion and mercenaries seeking money. The main problems expected are: First, sanctions against North Korea will be strengthened, forcing further austerity. Second, there is a high possibility that large-scale casualties will occur and act as a burden on the system. The Russo-Russian War is not a guerrilla war like the Vietnam War, but a regular war using state-of-the-art weapons, so on average, more than 1,400 Russian soldiers are dying each day, and the North Korean military is no exception. Third, if large-scale desertion or prisoners of war occur on the battlefield, the horrors of the North Korean regime will become known to the outside world, and ultimately, news will flow into North Korea, which will act as a factor in increasing anxiety in the Kim Jong-un regime. Fourth, in the longer term, if Russia loses the war, North Korea, as a co-belligerent country, may also become a ‘party to compensation for war damages’. In short, there is a high possibility that you will fall into a deep swamp that will be difficult to get out of.
Conclusion
Kim Jong-un’s deployment of troops to Russia is a kind of game-changing move. And after the signing of the North Korea-Russia treaty in June, it was implemented after a period of preparation, including Kim Jong-un’s inspection of successive special forces training and cooperation through various channels with Russia. Therefore, our government should not underestimate Kim Jong-un’s leadership and North Korea’s intentions and capabilities, as some civilians do. We must assume and prepare for all scenarios, not only failure but also success (‘the quick retrieval of the Kursk region that Putin wants’).
In addition, the Russo-Russian battlefield is an arena of endless competition for national interests where the complex calculations of each country intersect. As some fear, we must not take a hard-line approach or let it develop into a proxy war between North and South Korea. Based on cool-headed judgment, an active and complex response is required that takes into account not only immediate national interests, but also post-war peace on the Korean Peninsula, Northeast Asia, and international order.
The development of North Korea-Russia relations to the level of a blood alliance means that the international community’s cooperation framework for North Korea’s denuclearization will completely collapse. If Kim Jong-un’s gamble turns out to be successful, there will be a big change in the security landscape surrounding the Korean Peninsula. North Korea’s increase in nuclear and conventional forces and accumulation of practical combat experience will act as a major burden on our security. In the long term, it should not be overlooked that Russia will have a justification for intervention in the event of a sudden change in North Korea or a local war on the Korean Peninsula.
But what is our society like now? The 21st century is an era of infinite speed change and competition for national interests. Nevertheless, many figures, including those in the political world, are still stuck in the thinking frame of 40 years ago and are only focused on instigating harm to the people. There should be no ideology or faction when it comes to national security. The article concludes by emphasizing once again that peace on the Korean Peninsula and the future of a unified Korea ‘depend on how we act’ and that ‘a crisis is an opportunity.’
Yu Fei Mu-hwan-National Opinion Integration-Main Action Committee-Jeoksu Cheonseok (滴水穿石)!
※This theory is written by the author. <한선브리프>This is a revised and supplemented article based on the article ‘The impact of North Korea’s troop dispatch to Russia on the Kim Jong-un regime’ (2024.10.31).
※Columns written by external authors may not match our editorial direction.
Source: www.dailynk.com
