Olaf Scholz may run into a huge slap, the far right is already rubbing his palms

Olaf Scholz may run into a huge slap, the far right is already rubbing his palms

The regional elections in Thuringia and Saxony on September 1 hit Germany hard. It was the first time since World War II that a far-right party won a provincial electionand in Thuringia the AfD reached 32.8 percent, far ahead of the conservative CDU, which reached the second step of the podium. Olaf Scholz his party, the social democratic SPD, with 6.1 percent It had its worst provincial result since 1949and the other two parties of the national coalition – the Greens and the liberal FDP – did not even enter the provincial parliament. In Saxony, the SPD’s result was only slightly better – 7.3 percent – and here the CDU just overtook the AfD.

In Brandenburg, the SPD does not have to expect such bad results, but the stakes are somehow higher than in Thuringia and Saxony. Thuringia has been the main base of the radical leftist Die Linke for a long time, and in Saxony the CDU has always been in first place. It once belonged to the German Democratic Republic (GDR).

Brandenburg, on the other hand, has been ruled by the SPD since the state was created after German reunification.

In the 1994 election, they still won 54 percent, but in 2019 they only got 26 percent, while the AfD advanced to second place with 23.5 percent. The Prime Minister of Brandenburg is currently a Social Democrat Dietmar Woidkewho has been at the head of the province since 2013, has been governing together with the CDU and the Greens since 2019.

Seeing the unpopularity of the national SPD-Greens-FDP coalition

Woidke tried to distance himself from national politics, both from the national SPD and from Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

A Tagesschau.de according to his account, Scholz arrived late at an event held by the Social Democratic Party in Potsdam, the seat of the province, and did not give a speech, and Woidke only met him after three quarters of an hour, only to part ways three minutes later. The state premier apparently sees the extremely unpopular Scholz and the national SPD as a burden, and on one occasion he stated:

We differ in almost everything from what is in Berlin these days.

Woidke promised in the campaign that if the AfD overtakes the SPD, he will not continue at the head of the provinceeven if a functional coalition could be put together without the AfD. But not only Woidke, the unwelcome guest in Brandenburg

Also for Scholz the stakes are very high: if the AfD defeats the SPD here, it is conceivable that the chancellor can say goodbye to his ambitions as a chancellor candidate for the Bundestag elections in September 2025.

However, if the SPD were to finish in first place, it could confirm Scholz’s candidacy, which he had already announced.

For now, however, the flag is not for the SPD. Forschungsgruppe Wahlen pollster 28 percent because to the far-right party, 27 percent to the SPD – although this is still within the margin of error.

INSA, on the other hand, predicts a bigger difference: 28 percent for the AfD and 25 percent for the SPD.

At the same time, the chances of the Social Democrats can be increased by the fact that 59 percent of those surveyed in the previous survey would like to see Woidke as prime minister, while the AfD candidate, Hans-Christoph Berndtet only 16 percent.

While the SPD is in western Brandenburg, the AfD is stronger in the eastern constituencies of the state. The far-right party wants to address the residents of the more backward, more rural areas. Among other things, Berndt spoke out against the windmills, which, in his opinion, disfigure the landscape, saying that seeing them makes him feel like he is in Mordor. On the other hand, the CDU, which has a chance for third place with 14-16 percent, prefers to place the provincial campaign on a national level and, referring to the federal coalition called “traffic lights” based on the colors of the parties, is campaigning with the slogan that

Traffic light goes off, common sense comes on.

The two smaller parties of the national coalition (Greens, FDP) cannot even kick a ball in the Brandenburg election: all surveys consistently measure them below the 5 percent threshold.

Cover photo: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaks at the event of his party, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD), launched for the European Parliament elections in Leipzig on June 1, 2024. MTI/EPA/Clemens Bilan



Source: www.portfolio.hu