The World Oil Outlook report, which includes medium and long-term forecasts of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) regarding the global energy outlook up to 2050, has been published.
According to the report, global energy demand continues to grow strongly, driven by population growth and economic development. Global energy demand grew by approximately 1.6 percent last year, with growth across all sources, compared to the previous year. This growth was mainly experienced in developing regions such as China, India and the Middle East, while it remained largely stable in OECD countries.
According to the report, which provides estimates for the medium and long-term global energy demand outlook, in the long term, global energy demand growth is expected to gradually slow from relatively high rates in the short term to more moderate growth. This is due to slowdowns in population growth and economic growth, as well as energy efficiency and transformation.
According to the report, global primary energy demand is projected to reach 374.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2050, an increase of approximately 24 percent compared to the previous year. This increase, which corresponds to a growth of 72.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, corresponds to an average annual growth of 0.8 percent throughout the forecast period.
During this period, non-OECD countries are expected to be the driving force of growth in global primary energy demand, with an increase of 73.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while demand in OECD countries is expected to decline slightly, with an increase of approximately 600 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Accordingly, it is predicted that the share of non-OECD countries in energy demand will increase to 71.5 percent in 2050, while the share of OECD countries will decrease to 28.5 percent.
Demand for all resources except coal is expected to increase
According to the report, demand for all primary fuels except coal is expected to increase in the 2023-2050 period.
The biggest increase is expected to occur in other renewable energy sources, especially wind and solar.
It is estimated that other renewable resources, which were at 9.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day last year, will grow by 42.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, reaching 52.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2050. Favorable energy policies and decreasing electricity production costs are expected to be effective in this increase.
During this period, the second largest increase is estimated to come from natural gas.
Natural gas demand is projected to increase by 20.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day compared to last year, reaching 89.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2050. According to the report, this increase is due to the fact that natural gas is preferred by many countries that want to reduce carbon emissions and the role of coal in their energy mix.
Oil demand, which is expected to increase by 16.7 million barrels of oil equivalent per day compared to last year and reach 109.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2050, is estimated to be in third place.
During this period, an increase of 9.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day is expected in nuclear energy, 8.2 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in biomass and 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in hydropower.
On the other hand, coal demand is expected to decrease by 28.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Coal stands out as the only primary fuel for which demand is expected to decrease during this period. It is stated that this decrease will be due to strict energy policies aimed at closing existing coal-fired thermal power plants in many regions and limiting new power plants.
Oil has the largest share in global demand
According to the report, oil and natural gas will continue to maintain their importance for global energy supply in this period when major changes are expected in the energy mix. The share of oil and natural gas in the energy mix will remain above 53 percent by 2050.
Accordingly, in 2050, oil will have the largest share in global primary energy demand with 29.3 percent, followed by natural gas with 24 percent and other renewable resources with 14 percent. Coal will have a share of 13.1 percent, biomass with 10 percent, nuclear energy with 6.5 percent and hydroelectricity with 3.1 percent.
Source: www.dunya.com
