Created Date: January 04, 2025 04:00
BIST 100 index, which completed the first day of the year at 9 thousand 961 points with an increase of 131 points due to the purchases driven by banking stocks, also received strength from inflation data yesterday. With the slowdown in inflation, the index continued its upward movement. The arrival of data supporting the interest rate cut increased optimism in the stock market. If the index rises to 10 thousand 400 points and remains at this level permanently, new record levels are expected to be reached.
Although the return it provided last year was below inflation, there is inflation optimism in the Borsa Istanbul BIST 100 index, which reached its peak in the last nine years in dollar terms, as of the first days of the new year. The day before, when the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) announced Istanbul inflation, the index completed the day at 9 thousand 961.34 points with a gain of 1.33 percent, and yesterday it started the day with an increase of 0.29 percent at 9 thousand 990.42 points. Then, he exceeded the psychological limit of 10 thousand points. The index, which continued its upward momentum throughout the day, completed the week with an increase of 1.14 percent at 10 thousand 75 points. The strong positive trend in bank stocks the previous day was supported by the CPI yesterday. Yesterday’s rise was influenced by the fact that the 2024 December inflation announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) was below expectations. If the index rises to 10 thousand 400 points and remains at this level permanently, it is expected to reach new record levels.
DATA SUPPORTING INTEREST REDUCTION
All eyes were on the domestic markets yesterday, TURKSTATIt was converted into inflation data to be announced by . What was important for the market was the arrival of data that could support the interest rate cut. It was expected. Optimism in the market increased when the data announced by TÜİK revealed that the slowdown in inflation continued. According to the announced data, monthly inflation was 1.03 percent and annual inflation was 44.38 percent in December. Experts’ inflation forecast was 1.61 percent monthly and 45.21 percent annually in the Reuters and AA Finance survey. Thus, the figure announced by TUIK was below expectations. Expectations that the Central Bank (CBRT) will make another interest rate cut at the first Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) of the year to be held on January 23 stood out as one of the factors supporting the optimism in the market.
In Info Yatırım’s research note, it was stated that if the monthly downward trend in inflation continues, the 10,200 level in the index may become the target again. In Ak Yatırım’s daily bulletin, it was stated that the closing above the 9 thousand 870-9 thousand 920 band in the index was considered as a ‘return to optimism’. In the index, the level close to 10 thousand 50 to 10 thousand 250 points is considered resistance, and the level above the 10 thousand 415-10 thousand 500 band is considered as the ‘new transition zone’.
It is reported that exceeding this level may support a new rise and this time there may be a trend towards 11 thousand 172 resistance.
REAL RETURN TO THOSE WHO CHOOSE THE RIGHT SECTOR
On the other hand, the index, which broke a record by reaching around 11 thousand 200 in July last year, but entered a downward trend after this peak, gave back some of its gains by the end of the year. BIST 100 index, which rose 50 percent from the beginning of the year until July 22, dropped by 23 percent to 8 thousand 620 between July 22 and November 5. When 2024 was evaluated as a whole, it was seen that the index provided a return of 31.6 percent last year. This rate of return remains below inflation; Analysts pointed out that this is why it was realized at negative levels in real terms for investors, and pointed out that investors who can make the right sector choices provide a significant real return. Although it showed a predominantly downward trend in the second half of the year, the index rose for 6 consecutive years for the first time in history. In the last two months of the year, the improvement in the balance of payments, the increase in reserves, the improvement in CDS and the strengthening of the slowdown in inflation increased the risk appetite again.
‘LOAN INTERESTS STARTED TO LOOSE’
Central Bank (CBRT) According to the Bank Loans Tendency Survey, the tightening in the standards applied to foreign currency loans in the fourth quarter of 2024 was replaced by loosening. It was observed that the tightening in the standards applied to other business loans also ended. The expectation of banks for the first quarter of this year is that there will be some relaxation in the standards applied to loans given to businesses in general. In the fourth quarter of 2024, it was observed that the tightening in the standards applied to housing and vehicle loans was replaced by relaxation, and the tightening in the standards applied to other types of personal loans ended. Banks’ expectation for the first quarter of this year is that the loosening in the standards applied to housing and vehicle loans will continue, while there will be some tightening in the standards applied to other types of personal loans.
Source: bigpara.hurriyet.com.tr
