The expansion of renewable energies is accelerating and, by 2030, they will cover 50% of global electricity demand, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In the annual report on the prospects for renewable energy, released today, the IEA considers that, by 2030, more efforts are needed to meet the COP28 objective of tripling renewable capacity and estimates that renewable energy production capacity will increase by 2.7 times between 2022 and 2030, which is lower than the objective set by the approximately 200 countries that participated in the Dubai climate summit ten months ago.
However, the agency believes that a tripling “is entirely possible if governments seize opportunities for short-term action”, which requires “bold plans” from each country next year and more international cooperation to reduce high financing costs. in developing regions such as Africa and Southeast Asia. In total, more than 5,500 gigawatts of new renewable energy production capacity are expected between 2024 and 2030, almost triple the increase recorded in the previous seven years.
China will be responsible for almost 60% of these 5,500 gigawatts, meaning that, at the end of the decade, it will represent almost half of the world’s production of renewable electricity, compared to a third in 2010.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol highlights in the report that renewable energy “is advancing faster than national governments can set targets”, not only due to efforts to reduce emissions or strengthen energy security, but also because they are already the cheapest option for generating electricity in almost every country in the world.
This explains, above all, the explosion of photovoltaic solar energy, which, in itself, will be responsible for 80% of the growth in renewable electricity production worldwide by 2030.
The collapse in the price of solar installations is explained by the fact that panel production capacity exceeds 1,100 gigawatts this year, mainly concentrated in China, a volume that represents more than double the demand forecast for this year.
One of the apparently beneficial consequences of this imbalance is the fact that the prices of photovoltaic modules have fallen by more than half since the beginning of 2023.
But the other side of the coin is that many manufacturers are incurring large financial losses, with the risk of bankruptcy, and that, given the concentration of production in China and dependence on the rest of the world, trade and political tensions are likely to increase .
In this regard, the IEA estimates that the production of solar panels is expected to triple by 2030, both in the USA and India, but their manufacture is two to three times more expensive than in China, and it is unlikely that this difference will decrease, at least in this decade.
As China is expected to continue to dominate more than 80% of solar panel manufacturing capacity in 2030, the study authors advise policymakers to balance the additional costs of local production with the benefits in terms of job creation and energy security.
Wind energy, according to the IEA, after some difficult years due to financial problems, will also see an acceleration in its expansion, which will double between 2024 and 2030 in relation to the previous seven years. Together, solar energy and wind energy will represent 30% of electricity production at the beginning of the next decade.
The growing competitiveness of renewable energies in electricity production, where they are progressing at an accelerated pace, cannot hide the fact that their share of the global energy ‘pie’ will continue to be a minority, with 20% in 2030, compared to 13% in 2023 .
The reason why almost 80% of energy demand will still have to be met by fossil fuels at the beginning of the next decade is that renewable fuels (including biofuels, biogas or green hydrogen) will still represent less than 6%.
As for international climate objectives, the road ahead seems much longer.
Source: www.jornaldenegocios.pt
