Russia’s shadowy actions that threaten countries beyond Ukraine

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Putin blindly continues the war in Ukraine, despite the fact that the 870-day mark has been exceeded, and Russia has suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties. The Kremlin leader is making a dangerous move, escalating Russia’s shadow war against Europe over the past 6 months over the influx of Western arms to Ukraine and tightening sanctions against Moscow.

Russia’s latest action beyond Ukraine was recently revealed by CNN, which announced that the US and Germany had foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Düsseldorf-based Rheinmettal CEO Armin Papperger, according to Telegraph.

Russia is waging a shadow war against Europe. Russia targeted Papperger for exporting a large number of 155mm artillery shells to Ukraine. This bombshell revelation came hours after Russia’s migration watchdog claimed another victim. An illegal migrant in Belarus brutally killed Polish sergeant Mateusz Sitek.

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These actions fit perfectly into the Russian manual. Russian intelligence agents are hiring saboteurs to carry out arson attacks against warehouses storing military supplies for Ukraine and to install surveillance cameras in key logistics centers.

Russia uses GPS jamming to disrupt civilian aircraft routes in the Baltic Sea, Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea. With the help of its client Alexander Lukashenko, Russia encourages illegal migration flows from Belarus to Poland and the Baltic countries. The Russian assassination plot against Papperger is part of a wider campaign of intimidation against arms dealers in Ukraine.

Why has Russia’s shadow war against Europe escalated in the last six months? The influx of Western weapons into Ukraine and the tightening of sanctions against Russia play an important role. Ukraine’s use of NATO weaponry to strike Russian targets and the EU’s handing over of proceeds from frozen assets of the Russian Central Bank to Ukraine are fueling the Kremlin’s thirst for revenge.

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Towards the end of Vladimir Putin’s second term as president, Russia laid the groundwork for its shadow war against Europe. In 2008, the GRU created Unit 29155, a squadron of assassins and saboteurs that sought to destabilize European countries. The GRU action was a throwback to the Cold War era.

The Mitrokhin files, which were published by MI5 historian Christopher Andrew after the Cold War, reveal how the KGB set up assassinations, armed terrorist groups and tried to destroy critical infrastructure in Western countries.

The next phase of Russia’s shadow war was the harmonization of illegal migration. In March 2016, US European Command commander Philip Breedlove warned that Russia and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad were “weaponizing” refugee flows to destabilize Europe.

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Although Western policy toward Putin’s Russia has tightened considerably since the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, it has responded half-heartedly to the threat of Russia’s shadow war. Russia’s neighbors have been forced to act alone and shoulder most of the burden of these hybrid threats.

To counter these threats, Western countries should harmonize terrorist sanctions against the GRU and SVR bodies responsible for Russia’s actions. Britain’s belated designation of the Wagner Group for terrorism sets a positive precedent. The crackdown on proxy recruitment by Russia’s now-exiled European spy network must be stepped up.