Sinner’s explosion, Djokovic’s collapse and the Alcaraz paradox

With the end of the ATP events, the tennis season can be considered almost closed, as well as the ranking, which until the end of the season will only undergo slight changes – and which are unlikely to upset the top-100 – due to minor tournaments such as the Challengers and the Futures. It is therefore interesting to make a comparison with the ranking at the end of 2023, which shows the enormous growth of the blue movement led by a Jannik Sinner capable of writing record after record, but also characterized by the excellent season of Lorenzo Musettifrom the rise of Matteo Berrettini and by the explosion of players who were on the fringes of the top-100 last year.

In addition to the Italians, it is interesting to see how the top-10 has been overturned, with the collapse of Novak Djokovicthe definitive rebirth of Alexander Zverevthe surprise Taylor Fritz and the decline of Daniil Medvedevwhile the paradox is intriguing Carlos Alcarazwhich lost almost 2000 points compared to last season despite having doubled its slam triumphs.

The growth of Italians: the number of Italians in the top 100 has almost doubled

2023 had undoubtedly been a very positive and exciting year for Italy, culminating with the triumph in Davis Cup branded Jannik Sinner, Matteo Arnaldi, Lorenzo Musetti, Lorenzo Sonego e Simone Bolelli which had been missing for 47 years. Despite this, there were five Azzurri in the top-100 at the end of the 2023 season, i.e. the previously mentioned most Matteo Berrettini instead of the double player Bolelli. On the other hand, Italy boasted a veritable platoon of players, 13, between world No. 101 and 200.

In just twelve months the Italians in the top 100 have practically doubled. This is thanks to the growth – or rebirth – of many of the Azzurri who were present in the first 200 as Flavio Cobolli (went from 101st to 32nd), Luciano Darderi (and 128° at 44°), Fabio Fognini (da 107° a 90°) e Luca Nardi (from 118th to 91st), and to the confirmation of those who were already part of the top 100 in the world.

The explosion of Sinner, the rebirth of Berrettini and the confirmation of Musetti

But in addition to quantity, Italy offers a lot of quality, starting from Sinnerwho after a 2023 closed in crescendo with what – until then – was the best position (fourth) for an Italian at the end of the season, grew enormously during 2024, during which he won his first two slam titles, the first Nitto ATP Finals, three Masters 1000 and two ATP 500, results that allowed him to climb to the top of the ATP rankings and maintain the position for 25 consecutive weeks (number destined to grow until February 2025), going from 6490 points at the end of 2023 to the current 11830.

In 2024, Italy also witnessed the rebirth and rise in the ranking of Berrettiniwho after the many injuries suffered in 2022 and 2023, returned to playing regularly this season, in which he won three ATP titles (record number of trophies in a season for Matteo), reached two other finals and was protagonist together with Sinner of the Italian triumph in the Davis Cup. All this has allowed the Roman tennis player to move up the rankings, moving from 92nd position at the end of 2023 to 35th currently.

Also not to be forgotten is the excellent season of the Italian n°2 Musettiwho after a 2023 full of ups and – many – downs, returned to show his sparkling tennis by reaching his first slam semi-final – on grass, a surface he learned to appreciate this year -, winning his first Olympic medal Italian in singles a hundred years after the last one and achieving many other excellent results which allowed him to dreturning to the top 20 (to be precise in 17th place with 2600 points) after last year he finished 27th with 1470.

The top-10 upset and Djokovic’s collapse

The top-10 has also undergone major changes, with as many as three players dropping out of the top ten, viz Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holger Rune e Hubert Hurkaczreplaced by Casper Ruud – returned at times close to 2022 levels -, Alex de Minaur and the never tame Grigor Dimitrov.

What is more surprising than the changes in the top-10, however, is the collapse of Novak Djokovicwho paid dearly for the first season without ATP titles (certainly balanced by the Olympic gold) since 2005, when he was just 18 years old. All this has led to the fall of Nole, who from No. 1 in the world with 11245 points as he was at the end of 2023, now finds himself seventh with 3910 points.

The growth of Zverev and Fritz

There are also those who experienced enormous growth in 2024, such as Alexander Zverevback to pre-injury levels at Roland Garros 2022 (if not even higher) and winner of two big titles (something that hasn’t happened to him since 2021) as well as finalist at Roland Garros. The German has in fact gone from 3985 points which earned him seventh place in 2023, to 7915 which places him behind only Sinner in 2024.

Another player with a Teutonic surname but American to the core was also the protagonist of an important growth. We are obviously talking about Taylor Fritzwho in 2024 reached his first slam final at the US Open, the first final act at the ATP Finals and the best ranking of n°4 in the world which he still maintains with 5100 points, exactly 2000 more than those who at the end 2023 placed him in tenth place.

The Alcaraz paradox

The most paradoxical change compared to 2023 is that of Carlos Alcarazwho despite having won two slam titles in 2024, therefore one more than last season, has lost one position in the rankings and almost 2000 points in the ranking. In fact, last year the Spaniard ended the year as No. 2 with 8855 points, while this year he is at No. 3 with 7010 points. A decline that can easily be explained by the various missteps of which he was the protagonist, but which is nevertheless surprising given the importance of the titles won and the fact that he was the only one capable of beating consistently Sinner in 2024.

ATP Rankings: The Complete Top-100

Source: Ipa