22.09.2024. / 16:47
NEW YORK – The United Nations has recently updated its extensive “Word Population Prospects” database, in which it provides estimates of demographic and population trends of the world’s population.
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The figures provide an insight into demographic trends in the past, but also a look into the future.
The UN estimates that there are 8.17 billion people living in the world today, and that the world will peak in 2084 with 10.3 billion people, followed by a slight decline.
Although the global population is expected to grow for many decades to come, the rate of population growth is slowing rapidly, the report shows.
India overtook China
This is driven by a dramatic decrease in the fertility rate or fecundity, which means the coefficient showing the number of children born per woman in the fertile period of life.
Fertility rates in Europe, America and Asia are now below or at most two children per woman.
Across Africa, this figure is higher but has also declined significantly. In the 1970s, there were almost seven children per woman. Today, it has fallen to almost four, and the UN expects rates to continue falling to less than three in 2050 and closer to two children by the end of the century.
The data also reveal that India has overtaken China as the most populous country. Also, China’s population seems to have peaked and is now declining. The reason for this is a sudden drop in the fertility rate, which is below the “replacement rate” – the average number of children per woman that is needed to keep the population constant from generation to generation, for a longer period.
Projections show that India’s population will grow to 1.7 billion around 2060, followed by a decline.
The European population, which the UN estimates at 745 million people in 2024, will drop to below 600 million in 2100.
The region is “losing” half of its population
The European trend is very pronounced in the countries of our region, where UN projections show that by the year 2100 the number of inhabitants will be almost halved.
Of the countries listed in 2024, Serbia is the most populous with 6.7 million inhabitants. It is followed by Croatia with 3.9 million, Bosnia and Herzegovina with 3.2 million, Slovenia with 2.1 million inhabitants, North Macedonia with 1.8 million inhabitants, Kosovo* with 1.7 million, and Montenegro with around 638,000. This means that in 2024, a total of 20 million inhabitants will live in the territory of the former Yugoslavia, according to UN data.
According to UN projections, by 2050 alone, the region will have three million fewer inhabitants, or 16.9 million in total.
Projections show that the countries of the region will have only 11 million inhabitants in the year 2100, which is almost twice less than today’s 20 million.
The numbers show that in the year 2100, Serbia will have three million fewer inhabitants than today, or 3.7 million inhabitants.
1.7 million fewer people will live in Croatia, and the population will be 2.1 million.
Bosnia and Herzegovina will “lose” 1.8 million inhabitants and will have 1.36 million inhabitants. North Macedonia will have almost a million fewer inhabitants, and the UN estimates that 863,000 people will then live in the country.
Slovenia will lose the least percentage of its population and in 2100 it will have 1.6 million inhabitants – according to projections, more than Bosnia and Herzegovina, which in 2024 will have a significantly larger population.
Kosovo* will have almost 600,000 less inhabitants and will have more than one million inhabitants.
Montenegro, which according to UN estimates has 638,000 inhabitants today, will halve its population by the year 2100, so it is estimated that 326,019 inhabitants will live in that country. Al Jazeera
Source: www.capital.ba
