The aging of the nation is accelerating, by 2050 the percentage of people over 65 will increase from 21.9 to 28.5

UNTIL the middle of the century, we will age by 2.6 years. On average, we will be 46.4 years old, and in a quarter of municipalities in Serbia, the average age of the population will be over 50 years old!

This shows how much the nation’s aging wheel is accelerating, because according to the 2022 census, only six local governments had an average age above half a century.

The expected duration of life in Serbia in three decades will be extended by six years, according to the estimates of the Republic Institute of Statistics. Everyone will live longer, even the oldest generations, so Serbia will be even older than today.

There are many reasons for the increased number of elderly compared to the rest of the population. In addition to the decline in the birth rate or longer life due to the development of medicine, there is also the often forgotten fact that the most populous, post-war, baby-boom generation reached the third age and sharply increased the number of pensioners. Demographers expect such trends in the future.

In the period between the two censuses, 2002 and 2011, the average age has already increased by two years, and by 2022 by another 1.6. According to the RZS, the expected life expectancy of the female population in our country in 2022 was 78 years, and 73 for men. It is expected that in 2052, the life expectancy of women and men will be approximately 84 and 79 years, respectively.

– The aging index is the ratio of people aged sixty and over to young people up to 19 years old – they explain to “Novosti” in the RSZ. – In 2003, it was 99.6, which means that for every 100 children and young people up to 19, the representation of the elderly was 99.6. Already next year it exceeds 100, and last year it was 150.5. Projections are that in 2052 it will be 192.4.

This, again, means that, according to their estimates, the ratio of dependents to the working-age population will be 3:4, so the labor force contingent will be a quarter more burdened than at the time of the last census.

The representation of the population over 65 in the total population will increase from 21.9 to 28.5, and those aged 80 and over, from 4.5 to 7.3 percent. Like most countries in the world, Serbia will increasingly be a country of the elderly, so it will have to adapt its social and health policy to this population.

– Aging is and will be one of the most dominant processes when it comes to the population – says prof. Dr. Jelena Stojilković Gnjatović, from the Department of Demography of the Belgrade Faculty of Geography. – That process is long-term, silent, we don’t notice it because it is masked. It summarizes all other demographic processes: low birth rate, mortality, and inheritance. After the war, fertility was extremely high and thus we got the famous baby boom generation. In the USA it lasted until 1964, and in our country it ended already in 1956 and 1957.

Such a birth boom, our interlocutor notes, has not been repeated, although the echo generation, born between 1972 and 1984, is somewhat larger. The generation between 2001 and 2004 also belongs to the slightly larger group.

– These are the grandchildren of baby boomers. Unlike them, before the war we had the so-called truncate generation. That is why in the census of 2011 and 2022 we see such a growth in the number of people in the third age. This is, among other things, a consequence of what demographers call the “tsunami of baby boomers” – explains Dr. Jelena Stojilković Gnjatović.

This generation differed from all the previous ones, it was characterized by the optimistic spirit of post-war reconstruction, they were the first generation that did not live in poverty, because the standard of living rose quickly after the war. With the post-war generation, the pattern according to which the man was the breadwinner of the family, and the woman was exclusively the housewife, was demolished. We also have rural-urban migrations, the introduction of compulsory schooling, the opening of new jobs for the female workforce, the extension of life expectancy… Since it has been shown that women live longer than men, for the first time, women began to dominate among older pensioners. This generation was also characterized by a higher number of divorces, which is also reflected in the increase in single pensioners.

Our interlocutor notes that the number of people in the third age in Serbia would be even higher today if it were not for the corona virus and the mortality of this most populous generation, as the oldest at that time.

There are three theories that predict how long life expectancy will be in three decades. Jelena Stojilković Gnjatović says that futurists think we will live longer than 100 years, realists “guess” at 85, and empiricists that man’s life on earth will decrease due to climate changes and lifestyle.

In the RZS, however, they say that according to the results of the mortality tables, women who turned 65 in 2022 are expected to live another 17 years, and men another 14 years.

Nataša Todorović from the Serbian Red Cross agrees that today we generally live in better health, among other things due to the progress of medicine and especially the reduction of infant mortality. However, no matter how old we are, the citizens of Serbia, he explains, on average live shorter than residents of European countries due to lifestyle and insufficient practice of healthy styles (diet, physical activity, social inclusion), as well as the absence of mandatory systematic preventive examinations that would enable timely detection of diseases.

– According to the results of health research in Serbia, 31.9 percent of the population uses some tobacco product, the highest among the population aged 45-54. On the other hand, during 2022, 51,624 people died from diseases of the heart and blood vessels, so that, with a participation of 47.3 percent in all causes of death, is the leading reason for dying in our country, especially among women – says Nataša Todorović.

The same survey, he adds, showed that slightly more than a quarter of the population over 65 years of age assesses their health as poor or very poor, which indicates the extent of the need for support. Almost nine out of ten people over the age of 65 report having a chronic disease.

– The elderly with the lowest educational level and most exposed to the risk of poverty more often rate their health as bad and very bad. The length of life is also affected by the economic situation. According to EU statistics for 2021, among the population 65+ the rate of material deprivation (feeling deprived) is 18.6 percent, while in the EU it is 5.3. It is more pronounced in older women. The first challenge that all societies face is health care: it is vital to ensure access to quality health care. With age, income decreases, and costs increase, medicines, diapers for adults, rehabilitation. All this indicates that health systems around the world have to adapt to the existing demographic changes. It is necessary to provide a greater number of geriatricians, gerontosisters and general practitioners who have undergone additional education, as well as to strengthen the capacities of families who care for elderly members – concludes our interlocutor.