The dollar and interest rates on government bonds are falling rapidly in the United States

In the United States, the interest rate on the 10-year government bond fell by a brisk 9.7 percentage points to 4.287 percent on Monday.

In Europe, loan interest rates moved more leisurely. Germany’s 10-year government bond rate was up 0.2 basis points at 2.404 percent and Italy’s was up 1.5 basis points at 3.666 percent.

At the beginning of the week, Wall Street’s eyes are firmly on Tuesday’s election day, and investors are adjusting their positions based on possible outcomes. The betting market still gives a slight advantage For Donald Trumpbut the race for the Democratic candidate Horrible Harris with will be strict. Based on recent polls, Harris’s chances are on the rise slightly.

So far, movements in the interest rate market have been larger than in the stock market. Market commentators see here connections to the elections. JP Morgan’s strategists see, according to the financial magazine Forbes, that Trump’s victory in a divided Congress could raise the ten-year interest rate by 10 percentage points. Harris would not have an uplifting effect, strategists estimate.

Despite the central bank Fed’s interest rate reduction campaign, interest rates on government bonds have risen rapidly in the United States in recent months. It has been estimated that it is partly due to political uncertainty, which culminates on election day. Harris’s improved positions in the polls published over the weekend may thus be related to interest rate movements.

Even after the elections, the interest rate market has plenty to worry about, as the meeting of the Fed’s management team ends on Thursday. The bank is expected to lower the key interest rate by an average of 25 percentage points, or 0.25 percentage points. In September, however, the Fed managed to surprise many forecasters by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. At least the numbers from the US labor market, which have remained strong, speak in favor of a smaller interest rate cut.

Along with interest rates, the dollar also fell on Monday, which fell over the weekend by 0.6 percent against the euro. The dollar was falling against all major international currencies. The dollar gave 0.917 euros and 151.81 Japanese yen.

“Somehow the market convinced itself that Trump was in the clear lead and he was priced to win, which seems crazy,” summed up the financial advisor of Unicredit bank Eric Nielsen market movements to Bloomberg on Monday.

“Now we see the market realizing that the end result was priced in too early.”

This week, on Thursday, the United States will receive figures for new unemployment compensation applications from last week. Today, Monday, we will receive the final figures for durable goods orders and preliminary figures for factory orders from September.