The polls have once again been right in a country of the European Union: the extreme right of the FPÖ is the force with the most votes in the legislative elections this Sunday in Austria. With the count of almost 80% of the votes at the close of this text, the FPÖ obtains 29% of the votes, advancing more than 12 points compared to the last elections and even improving the results that the projections gave it. The extreme right thus achieves the first victory in a general election in Austria since the Second World War.
The result is historic and also represents a severe corrective for the two current governing parties. The conservatives of ÖVP, of Federal Chancellor Karl Nehammer, remain with 26% of the votes and lose another 11 points. Meanwhile, their junior partners, the Greens, obtain 8% of the votes and lose more than five points. Conservatives and Greens thus say goodbye to the parliamentary majority, with which the country, economically stagnant and with growing citizen discontent, is forced to form a different government.
Third are the social democrats of the SPÖ with 21% of the votes, their worst result in history in a legislative election. In fourth position are the liberals of NEOS, with 9% of the votes. These could become the key to forming a government that leaves out Kickl’s extreme right. None of the parties with parliamentary representation are willing to reach an agreement with the FPÖ leader for directly rejecting his anti-immigration, Eurosceptic and close positions to the “illiberal democracy” erected by Víktor Orbán in neighboring Hungary.
Social unrest
The victory of the FPÖ is the expression of the social discontent that exists among important sections of the Austrian population, with an economy in recession for more than a year and prospects that are not particularly promising. Herbert Kickl’s party has been able to capitalize on this unrest and become a leading force for the first time.
Kickl, the undisputed leader of the FPÖ, has run a campaign marked by radicalism: the Austrian far-right program has adopted the word “Remigration”, introduced into the political agenda by the extra-parliamentary organization Identitarian Movement and which is committed to the expulsion of the country of refugees, asylum seekers, foreigners and also citizens with Austrian passports and migrant origins. Kickl’s current FPÖ is, therefore, situated in the currently dominant line in the extreme right of German-speaking countries that is committed to ethnically and culturally homogeneous societies, a position that borders on neo-Nazism.
The so-called “cordon sanitaire” has been history in Austria for decades. The country’s two largest parties, the conservative ÖVP and the social democrats of the SPD, have governed since the 1980s in various legislatures with the extreme right. However, the latter was always the junior partner. In the event of a new coalition of the conservatives with the FPÖ, this time the chancellor would be a far-right. Given that no one within the party overshadows him, a government coalition led by the FPÖ would inevitably mean that Herbert Kickl would become Austrian federal chancellor.
All against Kickl
Despite the historic result achieved by the FPÖ this Sunday, everything indicates that there will be a government without the ultras. Kickl’s radicalism has made the rest of the parties rule out agreeing with his party. Even Chancellor Nehammer’s conservatives, who share many programmatic points with the FPÖ, refuse to negotiate anything with Kickl while he is at the head of the party. The question that remains open is whether Nehammer’s position will be imposed within Austrian conservatism after the dismal electoral results of the ÖVP this Sunday.
The federal president, former Green leader Alexander Van derBellen, also came out against a coalition government led by Kickl on the eve of the election. This being the case, and as established by the Austrian Constitution, it is more than likely that President Van der Bellen will entrust the formation of the government to the current chancellor and leader of the conservative ÖVP, despite the fact that his party has been the second most voted.
However, the FPÖ maintains its desire to lead the future Austrian government. “Our hand is stretched out in all directions,” said the ultra leader in the post-election round held this Sunday on Austrian public television. Calm and with a calculatedly moderate tone, Kickl has asked the rest of the parties to respect “democracy.”
Alternatives to the FPÖ
The alternatives to a government led by the FPÖ are a Grand Coalition of conservatives and social democrats, which governed the country during the first decades after the Second World War and which now has a slim parliamentary majority, or an unprecedented tripartite of ÖVP, SPÖ and the NEOS liberals, which would give the government a larger parliamentary majority. If either of these last two coalitions materialize, it is most likely that the conservative Karl Nehammer will remain as chancellor.
Less predictable are the consequences that the exclusion of the FPÖ from the formation of a government in the medium and long term will have for Austrian politics. Never before have elections in Austria left the two great post-war formations, the ÖVP and the SPÖ, in such a weak position. The economic evolution of the country, marked by recession and increased unemployment, will largely depend on whether the extreme right maintains its electoral limit at 30% or, on the contrary, its vote flow continues to increase.
Source: www.eldiario.es
