The Kremlin leader backs down and retreats

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After nearly 29 months of war in Ukraine, Russia has not achieved its initial goals of conquering the neighboring country and installing a puppet government. But now Vladimir Putin has been humiliated in an important strategic point, by the shameful withdrawal of the Russian Fleet from Crimea. Ukraine’s drone and missile attacks on Sevastopol have destroyed a third of Moscow’s warships, prompting the Kremlin leader to back down and order the remaining vessels to withdraw to Novorossiysk, in the northeastern Black Sea .

Peter Dickinson, an expert at the Atlantic Council says the withdrawal of the Russian Navy from Crimea shows the hollowness of Russia’s red lines and nuclear threats, according to Business Insider.

“The Russian Navy’s readiness to withdraw from its supposedly sacred homeports in Crimea made a mockery of Moscow’s so-called red lines and exposed the hollowness of Putin’s nuclear threats,” Dickinson said.

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Dmitri Pletenchuk, a spokesman for the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said in a Facebook post earlier this week that Russia had withdrawn its last Black Sea Fleet warship from Crimea.

“Remember this day,” he wrote. The Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine also said in a Telegram post on Tuesday that there are no more Russian ships left in Crimea.

Ukraine has heavily targeted Russia’s Black Sea fleet using aerial drones, naval drones and anti-ship missiles.

Earlier this year, the Ukrainian military claimed to have destroyed a third of the fleet, and in March the UK Ministry of Defense declared the Black Sea fleet “functionally inactive”.

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According to Dickinson, Russia’s response to the “increasing failures” in the Black Sea challenges the Western narrative that a “cornered and defeated” President Vladimir Putin might resort to “the most extreme measures”, including the use of nuclear weapons.

“In fact, he responded to the humiliating defeat of the Black Sea Fleet by quietly ordering the remaining warships to withdraw.”

Some in the West have expressed concern that Russia could escalate the conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders or even use nuclear weapons on the battlefield if its red lines were crossed.

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Dickinson said the overwhelming evidence from what happened in the Black Sea confirms that when “faced with determined opposition, Putin is much more likely to back down than escalate.”

“The West’s fear of escalation is Putin’s most effective weapon,” he added. “It allows him to limit military aid to Kiev while preventing Ukraine from retaliating against Russia.”

This, he said, “is slowly but surely setting the stage for Russia’s inevitable victory in a long war of attrition.”