The recent US elections brought victory to Donald Trump. How the return of the politician will affect Russian business – in the material RB.RU.
“The news is rather positive”: experts assessed the impact of Trump’s victory on Russian business
Author: Ekaterina Strukova
With Trump coming to power, foreign funds will become bolder in investing in Russian startups, and in turn, it will become easier for them to enter foreign markets. And although it is too early to hope for a complete lifting of sanctions, the weakening of the regime could be a plus for the venture business, according to experts interviewed by RB.RU. At the same time, Trump’s arrival will affect business within Russia significantly less than the increase in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Experts do not rule out a decline in oil prices and a strengthening of American industry due to the policies of the 47th US President, which will reduce the flow of money into the Russian economy.
Managing Director of the Voskhod Foundation Sergey Amiryan sees two potential scenarios for the development of events – “conditionally positive” and “negative”.
According to the first scenario, Trump’s policies will lead to a partial lifting of sanctions primarily in the financial sector and cross-border transactions.
“This will facilitate transactions for companies, including technology companies, that export and handle cross-border payments. This scenario will increase the flow of money into the economy, which is good both for investors, funds that manage money, and for companies that will be able to attract money,” Amiryan said.
The second scenario, negative, is associated with Trump’s plans to lift all restrictions that have traditionally been introduced and are being introduced under the Democrats on oil production within the United States and its supplies to foreign markets.
“This could lead to a fall in oil prices and, as a result, reduce the flow of money into the Russian economy. Investors will have less money and fewer opportunities for companies to attract investments,” Amiryan clarified.
As stated by RB.RU CEO of the venture platform Dsight Sergey Kantserova speedy de-escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and a focus on the domestic US economy were some of the key election slogans of future President Donald Trump.
“Will this speed up the process of lifting sanctions from Russia? Indeed, this can happen within 2–3 years. In addition, this will open up the potential of the Russian market. Foreign funds will become bolder in investing in Russian startups, and they, in turn, will be able to go abroad. In a sense, this news is rather positive for the Russian venture market,” the expert said.
The US President already has legal tools for lifting anti-Russian sanctions, told RB.RU Managing partner of the legal boutique ContractCreation by Kostromin Evgeniy Kostromin.
“First of all, Trump will need to repeal Executive Order No. 14024 of 2021 (blocking property in connection with the specified dangerous foreign activities of the Russian government). In pursuance of this decree, dozens of other regulatory legal acts have been adopted, but the abolition of this particular decree is a priority task; this step will allow the persons included in it to leave the sanctions list,” Kostromin said.
But while the sanctions policy and blocking of Russian assets gives Western countries a profitable financial result, a quick and significant change in the vector of the US sanctions policy should not be expected, the expert believes. According to him, the US sanctions policy and the statements of candidates during the election race are obviously different things, and in addition to the legal side of the issue, it is important to take into account the political component
“I believe it is more reasonable to expect a suspension of the escalation of the sanctions regime rather than its easing,” Kostromin concluded.
Founder of the investment company in the field of artificial intelligence SharesPro Denis Astafiev believes that after Trump’s victory, it is likely that sanctions pressure will ease, but at the same time, American industry will strengthen, which may also be felt by Russian business.
“The expected easing of economic restrictions is also supporting growth in Russian stocks, although companies that previously benefited from sanctions may face a reassessment of their positions,” says Astafiev.
Founder of the investment company Banana Capital Fund Dinar Faskhutdinov says Trump’s rise to power is creating a favorable atmosphere for investing in high technology and cryptocurrencies. The American president’s free market approach could encourage Russians to invest in crypto assets. On the other hand, the problems of the Russian stock market will persist.
“The high key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (21% – editor’s note) naturally provokes capital outflow. The dividend yield of shares for the Russian investor is currently less attractive than alternatives: money market funds and deposits. The rhetoric of the Russian monetary policy does not depend on who rules in the White House. This means that with the advent of Trump, the Russian economy will not begin to feel the high rate differently,” the expert concluded.
I agree that the US elections will not affect business within Russia founder of the international consulting company Bespalov Finance Alexander Bespalov.
“We understand perfectly well that no sanctions will be lifted in the near future – under any circumstances. Trump’s global return will not lead to a renewal of excellent US-Russian relations. Trade turnover between countries is now almost zero. This is also unlikely to change immediately,” the expert believes.
According to Bespalov, the countries are geopolitical opponents and will remain so, which means Trump’s coming to power will not affect business within Russia.
However, there were also those who had already profited from Trump’s victory, the expert added. Bespalov knows that Russians have brokerage accounts with Tesla securities, and the company’s shares rose 15% on the news of Trump’s victory, which investors managed to take advantage of.
Cover photo: Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images
Source: rb.ru
