The internationally agreed goal of keeping global temperature rise below 1.5°C is currently “deader than ever”, with 2024 almost certain to be the first year to exceed that threshold.
That’s the conclusion reached by climatologists, who recently came together to discuss how to stay within that limit.
Three of the top five research groups that monitor global temperatures believe 2024 is on track to be at least 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7F) warmer than the pre-industrial era, making it the warmest year ever recorded, surpassing a record set just last year. The last 10 consecutive years have already been the warmest 10 years on record.
The objective of the states of the world, compromise
Although a single year with a temperature above 1.5 degrees does not in itself mean a climate catastrophe and does not violate the 2015 Paris Agreement, scientists have warned that the goal of staying below this threshold has actually been compromised , despite the urges, notes The Guardian.
“The goal of avoiding exceeding the 1.5C threshold is deader than a doornail. It’s almost impossible to avoid at this point because we’ve simply waited too long to act. We are rapidly crossing the 1.5 degree line in an accelerated fashion and will continue to do so until global emissions stop rising,” said Zeke Hausfather, a research scientist at Berkeley Earth.
Last year was so surprisingly warm, even in the context of the climate crisis, that it caused “an examination of conscience” among climatologists, Hausfather added. Also, in recent months, the heat has been persistent, despite the disappearance of El Niño, a periodic climate event that exacerbated temperatures already high from the burning of fossil fuels.
“It will be the warmest year by an unexpectedly large margin. If it continues to be this hot, that’s a worrying sign. Exceeding the 1.5 degree threshold this year is very symbolic and is a sign that we are getting closer to exceeding this goal,” he continued.
The future doesn’t sound good anymore
Climate scientists generally expect the 1.5 degree target, agreed by governments after vulnerable island states said they risk destruction if temperatures rise more than that, to be exceeded within the next decade.
Despite countries agreeing to ditch fossil fuels, a new record for planet-warming emissions will be reached this year, and even if current national commitments are met, the world is on track to warm by 2.7 degrees Celsius ( 4.8F), risking disastrous heat waves, floods, famine and unrest.
“It’s clear that we’re failing to bend the growth curve,” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga, an analyst at Climate Analytics.
We also recommend that you read:
Santa’s village “longs” for snow! “We see that climate change is real”
Young people around the world feel overwhelmed by the threat of climate change
The UN draws attention to the fact that the countries of the world are not complying with the action plan on climate change
A US university has a new requirement for students to graduate: take a course on climate change
Source: www.descopera.ro
