The Russian-Ukrainian war is already taking place on a tropical battlefield

In recent years, the Russian Wagner Group has set foot in a number of African countries, including the Central African Republic, Sudan, Libya, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and Mozambique. Its mercenaries were placed under the direct control of the Russian Ministry of Defense in 2024, and the group was renamed the Africa Corps.

Russian mercenaries have been present in the West African country of Mali, which has been affected by a civil war since 2012, since 2020. They were called in after a military junta came to power in May of that year. The local leadership initially denied the presence of Wagner, but at the beginning of 2022 they admitted that 400 Russian “consultants” had arrived in the country. Wagner’s mercenaries were deployed to a former French base in Timbuktu in the north of the country. Russians do not shy away from cruelty. In April 2022, the human rights organization Human Rights Watch reported that Malian soldiers, together with the Russians, executed about 300 civilians in a military operation between March 27 and 31.

The Malian army has become stronger thanks to the presence of the Russians, they have had more success in fighting against the rebels, but since the end of July this year, the balance of power has been much more balanced, which is largely thanks to Ukraine.

The rebel group Állandó Stratégiai Keret (PSF) has given detailed reports about its drone attacks in recent weeks, and these actions were enthusiastically welcomed by the supporters of the PSF, which is predominantly Tuareg. With their reports of victory, the insurgents create the impression that they already have essentially the same capabilities as the government forces when it comes to airstrikes. They have acquired tools that they hope will soon change the balance of power.

On the morning of October 4, small drones dropped explosive charges on the army’s camp in Goundam, in the Timbuktu region, where Wagner’s troops are also stationed. A rebel official said “at least nine” Russian mercenaries were killed. Previously, in September, similar attacks hit the same camp in Goundam, as well as the settlement of Léré, located 150 kilometers to the southwest, where Wagner’s men are also stationed. The manner in which the attack was carried out was similar: four-rotor drones equipped with lightweight, home-made release systems dropped small explosive charges on targets from the air and then quickly left the area.

The rebels first carried out drone strikes at the end of July near the town of Tin Zaouatine in the northernmost part of Mali, on the border with Algeria. Then they raided a convoy of the Malian Armed Forces (FAMA) and Wagner in the middle of the desert, causing the Russian group the heaviest defeat since its deployment in Africa in 2017. The rebels claimed that at least 84 Russian mercenaries and 47 Malian soldiers were killed in the fighting. It was the first major success for the rebels, who were driven out of their stronghold in Kidal in November 2023, thanks in particular to the Malian army’s Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones.

What is behind the success of the Malian rebels? This is where Ukraine comes into play. Kiev is apparently doing everything in order not only to make it difficult for the Russian forces fighting in Ukraine: it is also a threat to the Russian Wagner mercenaries in Africa. Andriy Yusov, the spokesman of the Ukrainian military intelligence, half-admitted in a program of one of the local television channels that his organization cooperates with the Malian rebels. “They got the information they needed, and not just the information that allowed them to carry out a successful military operation against Russian war criminals,” he said, without elaborating. This drew the ire of the Malian authorities. The leadership of Bamako has announced that it will immediately sever diplomatic relations with Kiev.

Ever since Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainian authorities have been trying to attack Russian interests wherever possible. Not least in Africa, where Moscow extended its influence through the Wagner group, the French newspaper Le Monde recalled. The Ukrainian intelligence services launched a number of non-spectacular operations. In 2023, Ukrainian special forces commandos were present in Sudan to fight Wagner mercenaries supporting the forces of General Mohammed Hamdan Daglo, known as “Hemetti”. Their arsenal included small drones loaded with explosives. These are precisely the tools that were later used by the Malian rebels.

Ukrainian military intelligence surfaced in Mali in 2023. However, the rapprochement between the rebels here and the Ukrainians accelerated only after the rebels were defeated in Kidal last November. The rebels then realized that without external help they had no chance against the government forces, they could not deal with the enemy’s air superiority. According to some sources, operational cooperation between Ukrainian military intelligence and Malian rebels began in early 2024. Several members of the CSP rebel group traveled to Ukraine via the Mauritanian capital, Nouakchott.

The rebels expelled from Kidal also holed up in the capital of Mauritania for a while, where the Ukrainians trained them to assemble and handle drones that could be equipped with explosive charges. In this area, the Ukrainian army has gained extraordinary development since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion more than two and a half years ago. In March, the Ukrainians trained another group, but already in the territory of Mali, in the region called Taoudenni, in the desert north of the country. “A group from the CSP came to us for training in Ukraine, and a larger group of us went to the Sahel and is still there,” a source close to Ukrainian military intelligence confirmed to Le Monde.

The CSP uses its drones “primarily,” a Le Monde informant claimed, to target Wagner’s forces fighting in Mali. So the question arises, did Ukraine make the support of the rebels dependent on the use of these murderous devices against Wagner? According to the rebels, no, because these are “their drones”, so it is not up to the Ukrainians to decide who to attack with them.

Russian mercenaries find themselves in an increasingly unpleasant situation. According to experts, if Wagner’s mercenaries and their bases are managed to be kept under continuous military pressure, it could greatly jeopardize the implementation of their operational plans. According to several experts, these light drones, whose range and firepower are much smaller than those of the Malian army, will not revolutionize the rebels’ military capabilities. But they are a valuable new weapon for them.

They would rather have kept it a secret

According to AES info, which propagates the narrative of the juntas gathered in the Association of Sahel States (AES), two members of the “military wing” of the CSP traveled to Ukraine via Moldova in September to take part in “accelerated training”. Sahel juntas also accuse Western intelligence services of acting as intermediaries between Ukrainian military intelligence and CSP rebels. Andriy Yusov’s admission turned out to be a diplomatic mistake: since his statement came to light, the rebels were forced to admit cooperation with Kiev, which they would have preferred to keep secret. True, all they admitted was that they were “in contact” with the Ukrainians, but they did not comment on the origin of their drones, and even while maintaining their anonymity, they refused to confirm that they were trained by the Ukrainian services. “We launched the drones ourselves,” the rebel military leader testified. “They came from the Libyan black market,” another source claimed. “We just modified them to meet our military needs,” he added.

It has long been famous in Sudan

Already in February, video recordings showed that Ukraine had set foot in Sudan as well. They support the country’s army against the Russian Wagner mercenaries helping the rebel Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Then the Kyiv Post published a short film that allegedly showed a covert operation. A captured Russian prisoner was interrogated alongside two African men. The Russian soldier claimed that he was a mercenary of “PMC Wagner” and came to Sudan from the Central African Republic, where the Russian group is present with a force of one hundred people, and their goal is to overthrow the government.

Even months before the publication of the video, there were reports that the Ukrainians also wanted to cross the Russians in Africa. Previous videos have also circulated on the Internet showing kamikaze drone strikes also used by Ukrainians against RSF forces. From this they came to the conclusion that these operations were carried out by the Kiev special forces.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi met Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan, the head of the Sudanese army, at Shannon Airport in Ireland last September. “We discussed our common security challenges, namely the activities of illegal armed groups financed by Russia,” the Ukrainian president said at the time.

The rebels first carried out drone strikes in the northernmost part of Mali, near the town of Tin Zaouatine on the border with Algeria, at the end of July.

Ukrainian military intelligence surfaced in Mali in 2023.

Source: nepszava.hu