MADRIDTwo months after revising upward the economic growth for this 2024, the Spanish government will return to it. The Minister of Economy, Trade and Enterprise, Carlos Cuerpo, has announced that the Council of Ministers tomorrow will approve a macroeconomic picture with a forecast of growth in the gross domestic product (GDP, the indicator that measures the economic activity of a territory) of 2.7%. “It’s an adjustment that all the analysts are making,” Cuerpo defended this Monday morning, in an interview with Telecinco.
The executive of Pedro Sánchez increases his last forecast by three tenths: in June he estimated that the Spanish economy would grow by 2.4% this 2024. At the same time, he aligns himself with the estimates of the Bank of Spain, the last body supervisor who has revised upwards Spanish growth for this year (2.8%). Both the Bank of Spain and the government have been forced to update the GDP rebound after the extraordinary review carried out by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) of the statistics for the years 2021, 2022 and 2023. The revision of the INE has not only resulted in an upward update of what Spanish economic growth has been in recent years – consumption and exports, especially from the tourism sector, explain the bulk of the improvement -, but it also places the table that the post-pandemic recovery was much faster.
In the approval of the macroeconomic table this Tuesday, it is also expected that there will be an upward revision of economic growth in 2025, which the Spanish government now places at 2.2%. “We have more income per capita, less debt, more employment and more GDP”, defended Cuerpo in an interview with Expansion also published this Monday.
Awaiting estimates
The macroeconomic picture is the basis of the State’s general budgets, that is to say, the road map for public spending. Currently, the Spanish public accounts for 2023 continue to be extended. The government, however, aspires to bring forward those for 2025. However, parliamentary fragmentation and, in particular, the fragility of the bloc that invested Pedro Sánchez, complicate the path. In fact, on Thursday the Congress of Deputies debates and votes for the second time on the path to stability (the deficit and debt objectives) and the spending ceiling for 2025 (almost 200,000 million euros), the first procedures for the preparation of budgets. In the month of July Junts’ no, added to those of the PP and Vox, overthrew both in a first vote. The first vice-president and Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, has already warned that if the procedure falls apart again she will propose budgets with the current deficit and debt targets, which would mean an “adjustment of 6.6 billion euros for the autonomous communities”, he assured.
Concern over BBVA’s takeover in Sabadell
On the other hand, in the interview a Expansion Cuerpo reiterates that the Spanish government remains “concerned” about the impact of BBVA’s hostile bid for Banco Sabadell. For the minister, the operation continues to generate suspicion because it would lead to “excessive banking concentration” and a “negative” impact for financial inclusion. “There has been nothing new since I spoke out. Our view remains the same of concern,” he said.
Source: www.ara.cat
