The US elections are exceptionally important for Finland – “Jobs may be at risk”

Finland’s exports to the United States have clearly grown in recent years. Last year, the United States was Finland’s single most important export market.

“Finland has succeeded in increasing exports to the USA. 270 Finnish companies have subsidiaries there, which make a total turnover of about 30 billion. In China, the corresponding figure is 14 billion”, says EK’s head of trade policy Timo Vuori.

The US election result could hamper export efforts if Donald Trump would implement the import duties it had threatened.

“If the market closes and becomes difficult, it will of course have an impact on exports. Finnish companies can avoid customs duties by increasing production in the USA. But of course it is out of Finland. In Finland, jobs may be at risk.”

Trump’s trade policy is questionable, but more economic effects can still come through security policy, he says Nordic chief economist Wind Birch. It is known that Trump is not a big fan of the defense alliance NATO.

“Economic development in Europe has been really weak in recent years, and there are clear reasons for that, Russia’s attack on Ukraine and inflation. But here we have been stuck at low levels of consumption and investment for a surprisingly long time. In light of the statistics, we should have already seen much better signs of growth. Instead, German and French consumers save even more.”

In Koivu’s opinion, this is partly related to the feeling of security.

Actian chief economist Lasse Corin says that this presidential election is exceptionally important from a Finn’s point of view: the USA is Finland’s major trading partner, which plays a huge role in security policy.

Trump’s victory could therefore increase Finland’s country risk.

“If the security guarantees given by the USA were questioned, it could be that Wall Street investors look at the map and wonder if my investments in Finland are safe. Or Florida’s retirees would think twice whether to go on a Baltic Sea cruise and stop in Helsinki”, formulates EK’s Vuori.

No matter how the election turned out, Vuori sees opportunities for Finnish companies in the future, for example in the defense industry. Also for example Nokia are fundamentally strong.

“Challenging China means that Western technology and telecommunications players will succeed.”

Trump wants to support the basic and steel industries and the oil and gas sector. Harris’s victory would favor environmental and health technology companies, Vuori thinks.

Timo Vuori paints a positive scenario for Trump’s possible second term. Watch the video.