“There is a flood of new and more affordable models coming.” The electric car lobby believes that sales will skyrocket in Europe. There are reasons to doubt it.

Car brands in Europe, except Stellantis, find it difficult to comply with the new emissions average that will be required from next year and have asked to delay it until 2027 or make it more flexible. But the lobby group Transport & Environment (T&E) believes that “All manufacturers can adapt their sales to meet their objectives”.

The recipe to achieve this will be the cheap electric cars, thanks to the arrival on the market of seven models for less than 25,000 euros. This, they estimate, will boost the share of electric vehicles, which will come to represent a quarter of the market. Despite its optimism, T&E admits that there are brands that will have a difficult time and also requests support from governments to achieve this.

Almost 3 million electric vehicles in 2025?

T&E postulates in its latest published analysisbased on its own estimates, which By 2025, electric cars should account for 20-25% of the market share in Europe. The figure is very optimistic: in 2022 and 2023 they took 13% and 15% of the sales pie respectively. In 2024 they are stagnant and are expected to remain at 15%. In the first half of this year, remained at 12.5%.

But the transport lobby believes that electric cars will recover in 2025 precisely because manufacturers must comply with the new average emissions limit, which will be set in 93.6 g/km of CO₂.

This huge growth would allow the total number of pure electric vehicles sold next year to rise to 2.8 million unitsIn 2023, the total number of vehicles is expected to be around 1.5 million: that would be almost double that number.

The key: many more cheap electric cars. “There’s a flood of new, more affordable models coming,” said Lucien Mathieu, director of cars at T&E. This, they predict, will mean that electric cars sold in Europe will contribute an average of 60% to reducing emissions.

In total, it is expected Seven electric car launches for less than 25,000 euros next year. These include the long-awaited Volkswagen ID.2, the entry-level option of the electric Renault 5, the BYD Seagull or the CUPRA Raval. Also, for example, the Skoda Epiq. These will be added to, for example, the Citroën ë-C3 and the Opel Frontera Electric, which were launched this year.

T&E believes these cheap EVs will be in high demand, given that one of the main barriers to zero-emissions is their high price. But they estimate that 35% of buyers would be willing to buy a €25,000 EV, based on a survey by the European Alternative Fuels Observatory (EAFO).

In any case, this price usually corresponds to the base versions of these cars. An example is the Citroën ë-C3, whose most complete version costs 27,000 euros, including discounts. Or the Renault 5, which is currently only sold in versions that exceed 30,000 euros.

Government assistance is essential. T&E admits that this will be possible if European governments do their part to support the purchase of electric vehicles. “Governments need to create a stable regulatory environment for electric vehicles, with national charging targets and specific support for buyers.”

That is, re-launching or maintaining las Aid for the purchase of electric cars. Germany, for example, has eliminated this incentive precisely this year, causing a collapse in sales. France did the same. In Spain, MOVES III will be active, in principle, until the end of the year. However, these aids must be effective or they will be of little use: MOVES serves as an example, as its incentives are not direct.

They also propose social rental programslike the one launched by France. This allowed you to choose an electric car for 100 euros a month, being a rental with an option to buy. It is true that it was a success, so much so that it was put on hold due to the flood of requests. And finally they refer to improve charging infrastructureanother of the main and endemic barriers to electric cars, especially on long routes.

Sell ​​one electric car for every four gasoline cars? Brands in Europe, in general, do not see it possible to reach the new average emissions quota. For this reason, the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) has asked the the EU to delay the application of the new emissions average from 2025 to 2027. Although for now the proposal is a mere draft.

The reason is precisely the stagnation of electric car sales in the Old Continent, in addition to the tough competition from electric cars arriving from China with abnormally competitive prices. Although the new tariffs imposed on these models should help to slow them down.

The own T&E admits that not all brands will have an easy time meeting these goals: While Volvo will do it more than enough (although Volvo itself has already lowered its objectives with electric cars), for example Volkswagen or Ford are further away with their current range, with a gap close to 30 g/km of CO₂The solution they propose is to join forces with other brands or groups to achieve this.

In reality, the automotive sector is divided: Stellantis, for example, does not want to delay the new emissions limit, calling the proposal of the manufacturers’ association, to which it no longer belongs, surrealist. “Everyone has known the regulations for a long time and has had time to prepare, so now is the time to compete,” argued Carlos Tavares, CEO of the group.

It is true that Stellantis has done its homework, as it already has two more affordable electric cars on the market: the aforementioned Citroën ë-C3 and the Opel Frontera. Although not everything is bonanza for Stellantis with zero emissions: Fiat has had to stop production of the electric Fiat 500e due to its poor sales.

But Volkswagen, for example, is in a difficult situation: electric cars are not exactly profitable. In fact, it is even considering closing factories in Germany, as they are operating below their production capacity due to insufficient demand for its electric cars. And it is preparing a wave of layoffs to cut costs.

What’s more, quite a few companies are rethinking their electric strategy and are once again betting on hybrids to reach the new limits. T&E admits that hybrids will be essential to achieve the objectives, although in its opinion they will contribute much less to this: 20%.