To put it with the greatest goodwill, we can say that it was a very utopian idea from today’s perspective the electric-only EU transport strategy valid from 2035. It is not by chance that the European car manufacturers started/are starting to slowly withdraw from the project one after the other. Why wouldn’t they, since as long as they don’t come from China, EU- and American-made electric cars are still considered luxury goods with ever-decreasing demand.
The European population does not necessarily ask for forced greening either. The EU ban on the sale of new cars equipped with internal combustion engines after 2035 turned out to be the most unpopular climate protection measure in Germany, according to a recent survey by the Humboldt University of the University of Oxford and the Hertie School in Berlin. In return, the population is pushing for green standards that basically put the burden on the public sector and large companies instead of consumers.
Difficult times await EU e-car manufacturers
It is no exaggeration to say: no one in the industry thinks so seriously, that what the policy invented could be implemented in its current form, ten in annual terms. A significant number of the manufacturers verbally stand by the previous sound promises, but behind the scenes a completely different picture emerges. Everyone is preparing for the fact that we will see a correction in the legislation, and the developments are taking place accordingly – he answered Economx’s question Gábor Várkonyi car market expert.
He added: he sees few arguments in favor of the realistic feasibility of putting only cars without local CO₂ emissions on the market as new vehicles from 2035. In his opinion then perhaps the concept would work if the charging network is built up significantly faster in the EU, even more evenly, also in the less wealthy countries. Furthermore, if there was a significant leap in battery technology in terms of energy density and charging speed, keeping affordability in mind.
Based on our current knowledge, neither the technology nor the infrastructure nor the solvent demand will allow electric cars alone to be sold as new cars within a ten-year time horizon. Of course, the market is still developing a lot until then, and the range is also expanding, but if there is no technological leap, these cars will be able to organically conquer 30-50 percent of the market on their own. At the same time, the condition for this is the preservation of the current incentives
– predicts Gábor Várkonyi, who also explained that the situation is extremely heterogeneous even within the Union. While, for example, the Scandinavian markets are quite ahead, and the French are not doing badly either, the German e-car production has really been struggling ever since there was no state support. And the Italians are simply not particularly interested in electric cars, and electromobility has not yet really taken off in the Czech and Slovak markets either.
In spring 2022, Volkswagen started series production of the all-electric ID.4 compact SUV at its plant in Emden, East Frisia
“In general, it can be said that the demand for cars equipped with internal combustion engines is stable and high everywhere, the production of these models is performing well for all brands, while in the case of electric cars, they tend to twist the original quantity plans backwards. We see a temporary stagnation, or the e-car market will remain sluggish for a long time, this could be the basis of a long discussion. It is certain that ESG commitments have a strong impact on companies’ fleet policies, and CO₂ regulations on manufacturers”
– concluded the car market expert.
The new judges of the global and Hungarian companies are now being prepared, there will be no escape
Regarding ESG, a very important aspect is how the Hungarian industry reacts to this, but now we are more interested in whether the system that finally classifies Hungarian businesses and economic actors has already been developed.
About the details ITT we wrote in more detail.
Of course, the decisive role of Chinese e-car brands and manufacturers cannot be ignored in this topic either. Gábor Várkonyi says about this that Chinese manufacturers have so far not been able to take the EU market as easily as many had expected in advance. Regardless, the car market expert sees that the approx unlimited because of Chinese resources, they buy markets for themselves until some of the competitors wither away.
Unstoppable Chinese push: with state support
According to Gábor Várkonyi, what is less spectacular, but economically at least as decisive, is the supplier industry, where the EU has already lost its foreign trade supremacy to China. The batteries mostly come from China, as well as the raw materials, which are typically expensive goods, so for example we have to export a lot of gearboxes and engines from Europe in order to balance the foreign trade balance due to the batteries. That also works against European brands China is trying to displace foreign manufacturers in its own market.
The first car shipment of China’s BYD, the world’s largest plug-in electric vehicle manufacturer, BYD Explorer 1 loads cars for export at the port of Yantai, China, on July 5, 2024.
We are already talking about it Feledy Botond foreign policy expert spoke that the Chinese state-owned and connected car industry has been consciously and consistently receiving state support in various ways for a decade by the Chinese Communist Party. This is obviously an amazing competitive advantage over European manufacturers. According to the expert, the fact that the European Commission will only start protecting its own market with tariffs in 2024 is an extremely delayed reaction.
The preservation of the European production base and capacity is now a matter of national security: also because of the supply chains, the raw materials used and the technologies installed. This will be difficult for industry players to accept, but much bolder state and EU frameworks are needed to maintain sustainable European manufacturing; at the same time, the Chinese tactic of building production capacity within European customs borders must be curbed in order to establish European autonomy
– lists Feledy Botond. The foreign policy expert warns, however, that the timing of this is a particularly difficult issue, since Europe cannot separate itself overnight, as it has already made itself too dependent on China. At the same time, if he does not start de-risking, then the dependence of the European automobile industry on China will only continue to grow, in accordance with the goals of the Chinese Communist Party.
Could another Chinese car factory come to Hungary?
China’s SAIC Motors is building a factory in Europe, presumably in order to circumvent EU protective tariffs. For now, however, there is still a question as to where, but our country is also among the possible locations.
About the details ITT we wrote in more detail.
Source: www.economx.hu
