Last spring, customs officials in the small country of Moldova experienced a major success. Acting on a tip-off from national intelligence, they intercepted more than 100 passengers arriving from Russia via Armenia, each carrying bundles of cash worth just under €10,000 – the threshold for mandatory reporting. In one night, authorities at Chisinau airport seized more than 900,000 euros.
Moldovan officials quickly announced that the cash couriers were part of a scheme suspected to be run by a fugitive Kremlin-linked oligarch to fund protesters and buy votes in upcoming presidential elections and a key EU referendum.
The action was an early indication of what Moldovan and Western officials described as an unprecedented attempt by Russia to undermine Moldova’s EU membership aspirations and weaken the authority of its pro-Western president through a series of destabilizing campaigns.
“Russia is pouring in millions of dirty money to hijack our democratic processes. This is not just meddling – this is a full intervention aimed at destabilizing our future. And that is alarming,” said Olga Roška, foreign policy adviser to pro-Western President Maja Sandu.
The October 20 election, in which Sandu is running for re-election, will be held on the same day as a referendum in which Moldovans will say whether they support constitutional changes that could allow the country – one of the poorest in Europe – to join the EU.
Roška said the government estimates that at least 100 million euros are being transferred from Russia to Moldova to manipulate elections and the EU referendum. This is not the first warning of Russian meddling: in June, the US, UK and Canada announced that Moscow was trying to meddle in Moldovan politics and would provoke mass protests if its campaign failed.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Moldova wandered between pro-Western and pro-Russian courses, although the Kremlin was always present. Moscow also has 1,500 troops stationed in Transnistria, a region run by pro-Russian separatists who broke away from Moldovan government control in a brief war in the 1990s.
Sandu, a former World Bank official, was elected president in November 2020, riding a wave of popularity as an anti-corruption reformer with a pro-European agenda. She advocates a modest way of life – which is in stark contrast to the bombastic, mostly male politicians who have long dominated Moldovan politics.
In a recent interview, the president said she shares a two-bedroom apartment with her mother, while her property record from 2023 shows a bank balance of $600.
In 2021, Sandu’s pro-Western PAS party won a majority in the country’s parliamentary elections, giving it unprecedented power to implement reforms and steer the country towards the West. However, three years later, Moldova is still plagued by economic and political instability.
First, the country was plunged into an energy crisis when the Gazprom-controlled Kremlin cut gas supplies by a third and demanded more than double the price to maintain the supply, in what was widely seen as Moscow’s political revenge for Sandu’s pro-Western leanings. Then, Russia’s war against Ukraine pushed Moldova into an even greater financial crisis.
Located just a few hours’ drive from Odessa, Moldova has received the highest number of Ukrainian refugees per capita, putting enormous pressure on its health system, public services and infrastructure. Inflation jumped by as much as 40% as trade with Moscow and Kiev plummeted.
Unexploded Russian missiles from the conflict added to the sense of danger, while Russian troops stationed in Transnistria added to the anxiety.
“Sandu promised a lot, but the geopolitical situation was very difficult for her. They failed to fulfill all the promises,” said one Western official in Moldova, referring to the growing frustration among some Moldovans with Sandu and her party.
“Apathy and disillusionment are growing, which provides fertile ground for Russia,” the official added.
Sandu still has the best chance of winning the first presidential election against ten challengers, but she faces a tough second round.
It is also leading the “Yes” campaign for the EU referendum, with polls showing 55-65% of voters support joining the bloc. In a major boost for Sanda, Moldova officially began EU accession talks in June. However, skepticism remains high about the country’s ability to implement the necessary democratic and judicial reforms in the near future.
Opposition critics accused Sanda of politicizing the referendum by holding it on the same day as the presidential election, suggesting the move was designed to increase her chances of victory.
“The referendum is a very cynical move,” said Aleksandr Stojanoglo in Chisinau, one of Sandu’s main rivals from the pro-Russian Socialist Party, which has 12% support in polls.
“Integration in the EU should not be used for personal goals,” he added.
However, those close to Sand say that the country cannot wait because of growing Russian influence.
“We have a unique opportunity: Moldova has a pro-European president, parliament and government. The EU is open to our membership, with all the countries that supported the accession negotiations last June, the survival of Moldova as a democracy is at stake, and the geopolitical stakes are higher than ever,” she said. is Roska.
The biggest threat to Sanda comes from abroad, say her supporters. In particular, fugitive pro-Russian businessman Ilan Shor, an open – and wealthy – opponent of EU membership, which is under Western sanctions.
Shore was sentenced in absentia to 15 years in prison last year for his role in the disappearance of $1 billion from the Moldovan banking system. He fled to Israel and then to Moscow, where he founded a political movement aimed at destabilizing the current government in Chisinau.
At a press conference last Thursday, national police chief Viorel Černauțanu accused Shor and Moscow of setting up an elaborate “mafia” vote-buying scheme and bribing 130,000 Moldovans to vote against the referendum and for pro-Russian candidates in what he called an “unprecedented, direct attack”.
Officials in Chisinau also believe Shor is behind a wave of pre-election vandalism attacks on government buildings, accusing him of recruiting young people allegedly trained in Moscow to stir up unrest in the country. “We are ready for anything in the coming weeks,” said one security official in the city. “It will be various disinformation campaigns, violent protests and gross vote buying,” he added.
Shore did not respond to questions sent to him by the Observer. But he did not distance himself much from accusations of trying to interfere in Moldovan politics from abroad. Via social network Telegram, he offered to pay voters the equivalent of $29 if they signed up to his campaign, promising money to people who “convince as many people as possible in their polling station” to vote “no or abstain” in the referendum.
He publicly promised to pay Moldovans to publish anti-EU posts on Facebook and Telegram.
The centerpiece of the “intimidation narrative” promoted by Shor centers on the claim that Chisinau’s pro-European policies are pushing the country into war with Russia, said Vadim Pistrinciuc, director of Moldova’s Institute for Strategic Initiatives.
“We have never faced this level of foreign interference,” he added.
Worryingly for officials in Chisinau, Shore’s tactics have proven effective elsewhere in the country.
Last year, Yevgenija Gutsul, a previously unknown candidate supported by Shor, caused a political upheaval by winning the gubernatorial election in Gagauzia, another small, Russian-speaking semi-autonomous region in the south of the country.
Pro-Russian sentiment has always been strong in Gagauzia, a region inhabited by an ethnic Turkish minority that has had a complicated relationship with the capital Chisinau since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
But Guculova’s rise from anonymity and her ties to the Kremlin surprised even the most seasoned observers and raised questions about Moscow’s role in her elections.
“She was at zero in the polls two weeks before the election, and then she suddenly appeared and won,” said Mihail Sirkeli, founder of Nokta, an independent media outlet based in Gagauzia.
Guculova, who has openly stated that she leads a “pro-Russian party” and traveled to Moscow to meet with Vladimir Putin after her election, is currently under investigation for allegedly diverting Russian funds to a party linked to Shor.
“Shor is trying to repeat Gagauzia tactics throughout the country,” said one Western diplomat in Chisinau.
For now, officials in Moldova believe Moscow is focusing more on influencing the EU referendum than on the presidential election, where Sandu remains by far the most popular politician.
“If the referendum passes, it will lead to constitutional changes, which are harder to undo in the long term compared to the outcome of the election,” said a senior Moldovan official.
But even if Sandu survives this month’s vote and referendum, her team expects a renewed push by the Kremlin next year in the country’s parliamentary elections.
“Russia’s goal is clear: to keep Moldova in the gray zone. If they lose Moldova, they will lose their strategic foothold in the region,” Roška said.
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Source: www.vijesti.me
