This year’s heat and recent floods are just the beginning, scientists warn that extreme weather phenomena will become much more frequent

According to the specialists of the Norwegian-based CICERO International Climate Research Center, we are on the verge of changes affecting more than two-thirds of the planet’s population, unless we start to rapidly reduce our emission indicators. According to a study published in the columns of an authoritative professional journal, Nature Geoscience, we will have to expect drastic changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation and temperature in the coming decades.

Cyclically recurring natural events such as El Niño can change the usual weather patterns and the climate can shift in many directions in the direction of extremes. According to the research forecast, the average temperature is getting higher and the precipitation is sometimes low and sometimes many times the optimal amount.

Both the available infrastructure and the ecosystem of the inhabited areas will be less and less able to cope with this. The completed scientific work fills the gaps, for the creation of which four different climate simulations were used to predict the expected precipitation and temperature values ​​for the next two decades.

The research focused mainly on regional changes, as they are of greater importance compared to the global average. Geographical areas were identified where the index rate of one or more extreme weather events may change significantly over the next two decades.

According to this, where the issue of climate protection has been neglected so far – in the Mediterranean region, South America and East Asia – unprecedented extreme weather phenomena are expected during the next two decades or even longer. Since the affected countries mainly come from poorer regions, it is expected that they will be affected much more sensitively by these phenomena.

The models run show that 70 percent of the world’s population, or about 5.6 billion people, will be affected by these effects. This is, of course, the pessimistic scenario, according to which activities involving emissions will remain at a high level regardless of the expected consequences.

The study reveals that – although we can greatly improve the trends by reducing emissions on a large scale – it is completely impossible to avoid the consequences. Even if we finally meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, 20 percent of the population, or roughly 1.5 billion people, will suffer the unwanted changes. The most dramatic situation is expected in the southern part of Asia and the Arabian Peninsula.

This also means that we must be prepared to be able to adapt to the changed conditions worldwide in a critical situation. Experts warn us that in this changed climate situation, potentially even life-threatening situations will intensify, from summer heat waves to the current floods.