The day after the US presidential election, when it became clear that Donald Trump would once again become the president of the United States, the green climate activists immediately sounded the alarm and even called Trump the main enemy of environmental protection. The CEO of the European Climate Foundation told CNBC that Trump’s election victory will lead to a setback in international climate protection, and that the new president will do everything to destroy the work that has been done so far, noting that he believes it is likely that the new president pulls the US out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement again. The same irrational fear swept through the markets, as large wind turbine manufacturers and energy companies present in the wind power market, such as Orsted, Vestas, Nordex, EDP Renovavevis and Germany’s RWE, saw a significant drop of 7-14 percent in trading on Wednesday. they suffered.
The toxic green activists are shocked and shocked by the results of the US presidential election, but their statements, in addition to being irrationally fear-mongering, seem to be unable to understand what the America First doctrine and the rational green transition can mean from an energy policy perspective.
Perhaps we should not be surprised by this, since the poison green ideologues in Europe do not understand the Hungarian government’s energy policy based on a rational green transition either. So let’s look at the future possibilities from a rational point of view!
It is true that the withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement was initiated by Trump during his first presidency (this withdrawal took place in 2020 due to the one-year grace period according to the agreement), and Joe Biden brought the country back into the climate agreement. A repeated exit may be a likely scenario, but let’s ask ourselves the following questions! Is sticking to an agreement really the only guarantee for the green transition, or is it more rationality that focuses on carbon-neutral, efficient satisfaction of the growing energy demand, affordable energy, gradual energy sovereignty, and energy neutrality? Indeed, the key to climate protection is adherence to an agreement to which the biggest polluters, such as China and India, have not even joined, and only expects this behavior from the West, or rather a kind of international trade policy that can be used to achieve the goals of a rational green transition. The answer is clear, a strategy that ensures real energy sovereignty and a green transition does not depend on whether we stick to an agreement or not, which is the constant mantra of toxic green ideologues, but whether we pursue a purposeful, rational, gradual and effective energy policy along the lines of energy neutrality.
Let’s take a look at what kind of scenario is possible based on Trump’s energy policy, which is possible, but definitely rational and focuses on the interests and primacy of America, in terms of renewable energy, fossil energy and nuclear energy.
As for renewable production, the very day after the election, American toxic green critics appeared, stating that they are convinced that Trump will shut down the renewable energy industry and only the fossil industry will come to the fore again. The fact is that the Biden administration has directed billions of dollars in public subsidies for solar and wind power with the goal of completely decarbonizing the US electricity industry by 2035. However, the efficiency and cost requirements of this were not considered in the same way as in Europe. Before the election, Trump repeatedly mentioned that it is extremely expensive, so he will review the allocated government subsidies, especially those that have not yet been spent.
It is also a fact that the rise of renewable energy is not only due to the Biden administration, but also to the processes taking place in the world, i.e. to the fact that, through technological development, renewable energy production devices have become cheaper, the energy source is available to everyone, and the demand for energy is increasing , and thus the energy price is affordable and sustainable, not to mention carbon neutral and green. According to the US Department of Energy, solar and wind energy are the fastest growing energy segments in the country. As a result, renewable energy projects have progressed even in states that were previously Republican.
Where Trump can begin major review and rationalization, however, is the allocation and support of offshore wind concessions. Because while the majority of solar power plants and land (on-shore) wind power plants are on private land, offshore (off-shore) wind power plants are located in state concession areas.
As long as land-based wind power plants are cheaper, can be built faster, their maintenance is less costly and farming can be continued under them, they cannot be deployed at sea and are harmful to marine life, birds, and thus fishing, i.e. they are much less environmentally friendly.
In other words, in accordance with American interests, it is likely that the continuation of renewable energy production – given its benefits – will be rationalized based on its cost demands on the economy. What can be expected is that a firm trade dialogue will begin regarding the procurement of renewable devices in order to focus on domestic production, and the same can be expected with regard to electric transportation, especially if we only think of Trump’s supporters.
As far as fossil energy production is concerned, it is worth recalling the following. The USA is currently the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. This process already began under the Obama administration and continued during Trump’s first presidency and the Biden administration, especially in the states of Texas and New Mexico in the Permian Basin. The Biden administration halted the issuance of new LNG export licenses in January of this year until it conducts a review of the issuance of permits, particularly regarding the impact of liquefied gas on climate change. The moratorium halted several billion dollars worth of investments, and in addition drove up both domestic and world market prices.
Fossil energy, along with renewables, will be with us for a long time, but it does not matter at what price, and the rise in the price of energy carriers also affected the choice. It is a likely scenario that Trump will review this moratorium, which could have a direct consequence of lower prices for both industrial players and consumers. In other words, a rational attitude can be expected in this area as well, but it will certainly not be an area exclusively supported at the expense of renewables, as outlined by the toxic green ideologues.
As for nuclear energy, there is no question that it is carbon-neutral energy. In this regard, it is worth recalling that despite the fact that after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian war, America with the Biden administration more than doubled Russian uranium imports compared to before, at the end of 2023 a law was passed to gradually ban this, and at the end of 2024 not more uranium arrives from Russia. However, nuclear technology is needed, and this can be highlighted not only based on the COP28 statement in Dubai, taking into account the rational green transition, but also the demands from the technology sector (e.g. Google) that they want to satisfy their energy-intensive data centers and servers with nuclear-based SMR technologies.
It is clear that energy issues will be on the table during the negotiations with both China and Russia. It is also likely that the energy issue will be an important point of negotiation in order to ensure that the Russians do not escalate, but end the conflict, and to what extent cooperation can be maintained with regard to the American and European nuclear industry, as well as the European export of fossil energy carriers. regarding.
One thing is for sure: Trump wants to use all means to implement the same rational green transition energy policy that the Hungarian government has been promoting for quite some time. It also seems that Trump has to fight with the poison green ideologues in the same way as the Hungarian government fights with them in Europe.
It’s time for the toxic green ideology to retreat and replace it with a rational green transition energy policy in the world, which ensures competitiveness, energy neutrality and energy sovereignty, and where there is no place for irrational and ill-considered Green Deals. In any case, the result of the US presidential election will affect the UN climate summit that has just started in Baku.
The author is an energy policy advisor at the Center for Fundamental Rights
Source: magyarnemzet.hu
