At the moment, Donald Trump leads most forecasts both in total electoral votes and in forecasts for victory in key states.
The US presidential election is still being counted, but most forecasting models indicate that he has already won 246 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win (Kamala Harris has 200), won two of the seven swing states and is the favorite in most of the rest.
The New York Times estimates that Trump has a 93% chance of winning. Other publications do not make predictions, limiting themselves to stating that Trump won the elections in two swing states out of seven – North Carolina and Georgia, each of which will bring him 16 electoral votes.
There were no sensations in these elections: the candidates won in all states where polls predicted them a landslide victory.
The outcome of the election is being decided by seven swing states (Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina), in two of which – North Carolina and Georgia – Trump has already won by general consensus (although this is not yet official: not all votes have been processed yet ).
Trump is leading in the remaining swing states, but he is not guaranteed to win them. In Michigan (15 electoral votes), her lead is 6%, but only 54% of the ballots have been processed, and they are processed geographically unevenly, so Harris still has a chance. Wisconsin (would bring 15 electoral votes) has a 4% margin and 80% of the ballots have been processed. In Pennsylvania, which has 19 electoral votes, Trump leads his opponent by 3% with 80% of the ballots processed. Arizona, with 11 votes, is close to a tie (+0.72%) with 53% of ballots processed.
“The mood in the Democratic Party right now is sad: the path to victory is becoming increasingly narrow. Our best hope is a blue wall, but we see Harris doing worse there than Biden did four years ago,” says the NBC journalist and former press -Joe Biden’s secretary Jennifer Psaki.
By “blue wall,” Psaki is referring to three states: Pennsylvania (19), Michigan (15) and Wisconsin (10). If Kamala Harris wins all three, she’s president. Before the election, there was also an option in which she loses one of these states, but still becomes president, winning in Arizona (11) and Nevada (6). But to do this, she also needed to win in North Carolina (16) and Georgia (16), so this option was eliminated.
It is unknown when the final vote count will take place as rules vary from state to state. In Nevada, for example, the count could take several weeks, but it is now unlikely that the state will play a decisive role.
Trump is considered the favorite despite the fact that the vote count has not yet been completed and he is not guaranteed victory in at least one “blue wall” state, because his results in many swing states were better than they were four years ago, while Kamala Harris’s results were worse than Joe Biden’s were four years ago.
Trump has managed to increase his support among young people. They still prefer the Democratic candidate, but young people’s support for Trump has increased compared to four years ago. Even blogger Joe Rogan influenced some young voters: The fact that Rogan supported Trump, interviewed him, and Harris refused to come to him on his terms, swayed some undecideds to support Trump over Harris.
Trump also managed to mobilize his electorate and persuade his supporters to come to the polls.
Republicans are also the favorites to win the majority in the Senate, which also holds elections today. NBC News assumes that the majority will be minimal – exactly one senator.
Source: www.dv.ee
