What will Donald Trump do during his second term? During his first stint at the White House, from 2017 to 2021, the American president imposed customs duties on $300 billion in Chinese imports and opened trade conflicts with his European partners by overtaxing their aluminum imports, steel, but also cognac and Airbus planes. The potion looks even more bitter.
During his campaign, the Republican candidate promised to increase customs duties to 10% on all products imported into the United States. For China, customs tariffs would even rise to 60% on all of its American exports. “This would represent five to seven times the amounts involved in the first trade war between the United States and China.calculates Marcos Carias, North America economist for the credit insurer Coface. Enough to put on the nerves of the French, who sell around 8% of their exports across the Atlantic. In the event of customs duties at 10%, “the effect would be around 0.8 to 0.9 points of GDP for the European Union”calculates Allianz Trade economist Maxime Darmet, who considers it more likely that the future American administration will only adopt part of Donald Trump’s promises. Because this policy especially risks causing inflation to soar, due to failure to be able to quickly repatriate factories to the United States. Ditto for the project to expel 8 million illegal workers, in an already tense labor market.
“The Trump vote was an anti-inflationary vote», Recalls Iwan Streichenberger, a French entrepreneur based in Atlanta who chairs the network of French Foreign Trade Advisors for the southeast of the United States. For the manager, the American market remains an Eldorado. “Even if the increase in import costs reduces demand a little, this should not discourage French companies», he judges. In parallel with increases in customs duties, Donald Trump promises new massive tax cuts, to the tune of 3% of GDP. Already reduced under his first mandate to 21%, corporate tax could rise to 15% and overtime could be tax exempt. At a time when Europe is seeing its growth run out of steam, this would have the effect of once again putting the American economy into overdrive and increasing the growth differential between the two shores of the Atlantic.
On the climate, the American president has committed to leaving the Paris agreement as soon as he takes office on January 20, and to resuming investments in new gas liquefaction terminals. Reversing the Inflation Reduction Act will not be so simple. Despite the support given to him by Elon Musk, Donald Trump does not rule out the end of tax credits on electric vehicles. But Republican elected officials have already stepped up to defend subsidies to green technology factories, mainly located in pro-Trump states. “In the United States, the energy transition has always been driven by the private sector», wants to believe Maxime Darmet.
You are reading an article from L’Usine Nouvelle 3737 – December 2024
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Source: www.usinenouvelle.com
