Asked what it would look like in the event of the victory of former US President Trump and the candidate of the Republican Party, the expert emphasized that the primaries and the election debates are over, so the presidential candidates will have to get down to work, which is often very different from what they have been in the primaries promises.
In Schrader’s view, during the previous Trump presidency, his rhetoric has benefited Europe. Trump’s statements, presidency and the expectation that Trump could become the 47th president of the USA have forced many European countries to increase defense spending to the minimum NATO requirements, which is 2% of the gross domestic product.
According to him, this is a positive transformation of Europe, where security becomes a priority. Trump had a positive impact on European security and also on the opinion that Europeans should more actively support Ukraine in its fight against Russia. The researcher emphasized that the former US president clearly stated during the pre-elections that if elected, Trump would end the war in Ukraine in a very short period of time.
“In addition to such an opportunity, we must also be critical of what the Democrats have done in foreign policy. There is a war going on in Ukraine for the third year, hostilities have begun in the Middle East, China is becoming more and more aggressive in the Pacific region, especially against Taiwan. In addition to other circumstances, this situation is also the indecisive, indecisive foreign policies of the Democrats. result,” said a LATO board member.
If Trump is elected, his team could be joined by experts who may be capable of foreign policy and security policy. Schrader believes that Republican foreign and security policies have always benefited Europe. He also sees the positive in the case of Trump’s election, where the Republicans will have a huge influence on US foreign policy, where both sides – Russia and Ukraine – will be forced to sit down at the negotiating table and agree on a peace acceptable to Ukraine.
“There are already rumors that Ukrainians and Russians are talking about a peace agreement acceptable to both sides. It is possible that Trump’s election could be a positive factor for Ukraine to regain its territorial integrity and sovereignty and end this war, for example by exchanging the occupied Kursk territories to Russia occupied territories in Ukraine,” the researcher said.
Speaking about what kind of president of the United States the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris could be, the LATO board member assumed that she could be a continuation of the foreign policy pursued by President Joe Biden. Since the US military industry does not have the capacity to produce the required number of weapons, one of Harris’s challenges will be whether she can secure the weapons supplies. Shrader emphasized that Republicans will be in control of the US Congress this year, which means that Harris could have no less problems than Biden in providing the necessary military aid to Ukraine in the long term.
Asked what factors could influence the results of the US presidential election, Schrader explained that the economy plays a big role and that Americans do not feel sure about their economic future, price volatility, inflation, the still widening gap between people with high incomes and those who are poor. Also, many Americans are concerned about the safety of various values based, for example, on conservative and Christian values, sexual minorities, gender, race and other groups that affect not only social life, but also are implemented in educational processes.
The researcher emphasized that in the mass media, questions about what should be taught in schools and society, for example, about gender and human self-confidence, have gained wide resonance, as a result of which there is a struggle between liberal, social and conservative values, which visibly divides American society.
Shrader pointed out that an important factor in leaning in favor of one or the other candidate is also issues related to the household – young families not only cannot afford to buy a home, but also cannot afford to rent it, because prices in the US have increased to such an extent that the middle class cannot afford a home at all. is no longer available. The LATO board member emphasized that both Trump’s and Harris’ proposals for solving housing issues are vague and contradictory.
As another factor, Schrader cited homeland security in the United States, as supporters of both Democrats and Republicans have begun arming themselves. It is said to have gone to a rather dangerous level, as citizens are buying guns and relying on the Second Amendment of the US Constitution, which stipulates that the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed. According to the expert, citizens could use weapons in case of riots. According to him, if Harris and Trump have an issue where they both agree, it is the right of every American to be armed and to have guns at home.
Schrader emphasized that an equally important aspect is immigration. While Democrats and Republicans agree that illegal immigration should be curbed, legal, registered immigration to the United States should be allowed. According to the researcher, while both sides agree that Trump blames Democrats for the large influx of immigrants, Trump’s proposal for mass deportations could lead to additional violence and instability.
The LATO board member explained that an important issue is women’s rights and the opportunity for women to decide on their own health, including abortion. He explained that the conservative part of America believes that only God can decide whether or not a woman can keep a child during pregnancy, while on the other hand, a woman’s right to decide whether she wants to keep the child or not should be taken into account, especially if there has been sexual violence, pregnancy occurred at an early age or incest, pregnancy is undesirable for various reasons, or is simply dangerous for a woman’s life.
Schrader said that US voters are also concerned about health care. Although on the one hand, Trump has criticized the health care reform law passed under President Barack Obama, or the so-called “Obamacare”, on the other hand, he promises to increase support for the artificial insemination program, where families who want a child could receive support for such a procedure from the US government. The expert explained that Harris’ position is similar, for example, on the issue of availability of medicines. According to her, medicines and health care should be available to any person who needs such help.
“These are the main issues that dominate the election. Foreign policy is relatively a secondary issue, although it is important where US taxpayer money goes to, say, Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. Americans conceptually support aid to all three countries, especially Democrats and some Republicans too,” Schrader said.
He pointed out the problem – the US military industry is currently facing a lack of capacity to provide the necessary assistance to those countries with which contracts have been concluded, for example, contracts were concluded with Taiwan during the Trump presidency, but the weapons have still not been delivered.
Asked how the two presidential candidates are likely to win the election, the LATO board member explained that traditionally, approximately 30% of the US population will vote for the Democratic candidate, 30% – for the Republican candidate, no matter what the candidates of both parties are, but another 30% is the so-called undecided voters. According to him, the question is what the Democrats and Republicans stand for.
Schrader explained that Republicans always advocate that the individual needs more rights and freedoms. Republicans believe that if an individual feels good in their country, then the country is doing well, while Democrats believe that if the country is doing well, then individuals will feel good too. The researcher emphasized that philosophically, this is the biggest difference between Republicans and Democrats, but on many issues both sides agree. It is about jobs, policies and reforms.
A LATO board member noted that, according to Democrats, the country is doing well when the state regulates more, intervenes more, and cares more about individuals, while Republicans advocate that less regulation is needed, giving individuals more freedom, opportunities to take care of themselves, develop to take care of oneself socially, economically and also for one’s political rights. Schrader explained that Republicans are anti-regulation, anti-tax and anti-tax cuts, which have always been in the interests of corporations. Democrats, on the other hand, argue for the need to protect socially vulnerable individuals, which can be done with a higher tax burden on businesses and citizens. According to the expert, the question is which side the undecided voters will lean towards.
“If we’re talking about women’s rights, for example, then women voters should vote for Democrats if they believe that women should have rights over their own health. But there are also women who tend to vote for Trump because conservative families are important to these voters. values that Trump and the Republican Party tentatively represent,” the expert said.
No woman has ever been president of the United States, and when asked if the fact that Harris was a woman might affect her chances in the election, Schrader noted that different qualities play a big role in US elections, for example, electing Obama, the first African-American president, was quite something new in US history. According to him, there has been a good change in that sense, because both the Republican and Democratic parties have more and more women candidates who are getting involved in the electoral process.
According to him, it is necessary to look at the communities of the United States, whether they are ready to accept a woman as the president of the United States. For example, in the African-American community, the tendency to support a woman as president, leader, both in the United States and in their own communities, is the lowest. The expert concluded that it remains to be seen how the US communities will perceive the fact that Harris can be elected president. Currently, it can be seen that opinion polls show similar results, predicting that both Harris and Trump can become the next president of the United States.
LETA already wrote that on Tuesday the presidential elections are taking place in the USA, in which the current Vice President Harris is running from the Democratic Party, competing with the Republican candidate – former President Trump.
Foreign countries have also paid unusually great attention to these elections, as they can have a significant impact on both the war started by Russia against Ukraine and the situation in the Middle East.
Polls, both nationally and in seven so-called swing states, show the two candidates’ chances are similar and the outcome of the election difficult to predict. This, in turn, has raised concerns that, if the loser refuses to accept his defeat, dissatisfaction with the election results may turn into street protests and even violence.
Despite this, both candidates express strong confidence in their victory, and both sides are additionally inspired by the large number of early voters. By Monday, the number of those who voted in advance had already exceeded 78 million, which is about half of the total number of Americans who participated in the previous presidential election in 2020.
According to the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC), a total of 244 million eligible Americans are eligible to vote in the 2024 election. How big the voter turnout will be is not yet clear, but in 2020, 66% of eligible Americans went to the polls, and it was the highest voter turnout since 1900.
However, in the US presidential elections, the candidate who received the most votes nationally does not always win, because the victory goes to the applicant for the keys to the White House who won the majority in the electoral college, which is made up of representatives of 538 states. Thus, to win the election, a candidate must win at least 270 electoral votes.
The number of electoral seats by state is divided according to the population of each state and corresponds to the number of representatives of the state in Congress. In most states, the electoral votes are distributed on a winner-take-all basis, that is, all the electoral votes of the respective state go to the candidate for whom the largest number of electors voted in that state.
The order is different in only two states – Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are tied to congressional districts. Thus, the final outcome of the election will actually be decided by the outcome of the vote in the seven swing states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and North Carolina. In these countries, every vote can count.
Electors will gather in their state capitals to formally vote for the winner of the presidential election on December 17, and on January 6 their vote will be approved by Congress. The newly elected president will take his oath of office on January 20.
Source: www.diena.lv
