‘Unprecedented’ warming for lakes around the world

How can we distinguish between natural variations in lake temperature and those caused by human actions?

Data between 1850 and 2100

An international team of researchers has just achieved this and the results of his cutting-edge study have just been published in Nature Geoscience. With lakes worldwide making up about 4% of the earth’s surface, knowing whether water temperatures are rising excessively or not is critical.

By simulating temperature data over the period 1850-2100 using a state-of-the-art climate model, the Community Earth System Model V2, these scientists were able to simulate natural climate variability while taking into account the effects of human activity and the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases.

Unprecedented warming

The result of this large-scale simulation is clear: if nothing is done and climate change continues until the end of this century, lakes around the world are heading towards warming. “unprecedented”. “On average, all the lakes would indeed be faced with “unparalleled” climates by the end of this century”, “We are very excited to see this,” says Lei Huang, from Capital Normal University in Beijing and first author of the study.

“These conditions will appear on the surface of many northern lakes under global warming of 4.0°C above pre-industrial conditions, explains the study. Dissimilar conditions will occur earlier, under 2.4°C warming, at lower latitudes.” Very logically, Tropical lakes expected to be first to experience unprecedented weather conditionswhen global warming will be about 2.4°C above pre-industrial conditions.

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