US presidential elections in 2024: date, who can win, the essence of voting

The winner of elections in the United States is determined not by a simple count of votes, but through a two-stage system with the institution of electors, which sometimes brings surprises. For example, the candidate who receives fewer votes may become President of the United States. Read more about all the intricacies of this process in the RG material.

Content

1. Nomination of candidates
2. Democratic candidate
3. Republican candidate
4. Who can vote
5. Swing states
6. First stage of elections
7. Winner takes all
8. Second stage of elections
9. Validation of results
10. When is the winner determined?
11. Transition period

Nomination of candidates

Only a US citizen who was born in the country and has lived in it for at least 14 years. The age at the time of voting must be at least 35 years old. The presidential candidate is paired with a vice presidential candidate, who is subject to similar requirements.

Contenders for the top post are nominated by political parties, which hold a series of internal votes, called primaries or caucus. Based on their results, it is determined who will represent the party in the elections. Although there are exceptions, as in 2024, when Joe Biden, who won the Democratic Party primaries, was later convinced to drop out of the race in favor of Kamala Harris.

The United States has a two-party system in which elections are dominated by the two largest parties – the Democratic and Republican. Other parties and movements also nominate candidates, but, as a rule, at best they can only steal a few percent of the votes from the two main contenders.

Democratic candidate

The Democratic Party adheres to a liberal ideology, advocates broad freedom for minorities, strengthening social protection measures, and also promotes the climate agenda.

Her candidate is Vice President Kamala Harris, and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz is running for her vice presidency..

Republican candidate

The Republican Party is a conservative party that adheres to the principle of minimizing government regulation of the economy. Its ideology implies respect for traditions, support for personal freedoms, and protection of Christian values.

The Republican candidate is former US President Donald Trump, and Ohio Senator James Vance is running for vice president..

Who can vote

US citizens over 18 years of age have the right to vote. All states except North Dakota require registration to vote. Americans living abroad can also register and vote by mail. Many states have established the possibility of early voting. Up to a third of American voters take advantage of this opportunity.

According to various estimates, there are about 230 million people in the United States who are eligible to vote. But 160 million are officially registered voters. 2020 saw record turnout, with 66 percent of registered voters turning out to vote at the ballot box.

Swing states

Most states traditionally support one of the parties and, accordingly, its candidate. Therefore, the main struggle takes place in the “swing states”, where the outcome of the vote is unclear until the last moment. To those in this election cycle include seven states: Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. In fact, it is the voting results in these states that will determine who becomes president of the United States.

First stage of elections

At the first stage, a general vote is held. The ballots contain the names of the candidates for President and Vice President. But formally they vote not for them, but for the list of electors from the party whose candidates the American wants to see in the White House.

Supporters of the Harris-Waltz duo vote for the Democratic slate of electors, and Trump-Vance for the Republican slate of electors. Electors are representatives of parties. In each state, parties approve their list of electors, and based on the results of the popular vote, an electoral college of 538 people is formed.

However, in different states the number of electors differs depending on the representation of that region in Congress, which, in turn, roughly reflects the population. California, Texas, New York and Florida have the most representatives.

Winner takes all

All states except Maine and Nebraska have a winner-take-all rule. That is, the winning party in the state fills the entire slate of electors for that state with its representatives. Even if one party beats the other by just one vote, the losing party is left with nothing and the opinions of its voters are not taken into account. Because of this system, it sometimes turns out that in the total number of votes throughout the country, one party has more votes, and the other has more electors. This, in particular, was the case in the elections in 2000 and 2016. In both cases, Republican candidates (George W. Bush and Donald Trump, respectively) won with fewer popular votes than their Democratic rivals.

And this is not an accident. It is generally accepted that, due to the characteristics of demographics at the current stage, such a system is more beneficial to the Republicans. That is, with an approximate equality of votes at the national level, the Republican will most likely win. Therefore, for a Democrat to claim victory, it is better to have a gap of at least 3-5 percent at the national level.

Since the party affiliation of the electors from all states becomes known based on the voting results, it is already at this stage that it is possible to determine who will become the future president.

Second stage of elections

In the second stage, the Electoral College vote takes place. This time it will take place on December 17th. Formally, they are the ones who determine who will become president of the United States. In theory, electors are free to vote as they see fit, without necessarily considering their party affiliation or the will of their state’s voters.

There have indeed been cases in history when electors voted for the “wrong” candidate. Such electors are called dishonest, and in some states “wrong voting” is punishable by law.. But in practice, such cases are rare and never have a significant impact on the result. The overwhelming majority of electors vote “correctly,” and therefore this stage is rather formal.

Validation of results

Electoral College votes are counted and certified by the US Congress. This time it will happen on January 6, 2025. To become president, a candidate must receive at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes. If none of the candidates receives the necessary votes, then the House of Representatives elects the president, and the Senate determines the vice president. The last time in US history a president was elected in this way was 1824. This stage is also considered formal.

When will the winner be announced?

Often, within the first few hours after the completion of the popular vote, it becomes clear which party won in each state and, accordingly, will receive its electors. As a rule, this makes it possible to immediately calculate how many electors each candidate will receive and who will cross the cherished mark of 270 votes.

However, in 2020, due to minimal margins between candidates and recounts in some states, it took much longer to determine a winner. The announcement of the results was accompanied by scandals, suspicions of fraud and clashes between supporters of Democrats and Republicans. According to analysts, at In the current US elections, if the gap between the candidates is small, we can expect an escalation of street violence between opponents and challenging the results by the losing side.

Transition period

After the winner is known, a transition period begins in the United States. The winning candidate and his team form the future team for the White House and other federal departments. The new President and Vice President will be sworn in at the inauguration January 20, 2025.