Later, similar technologies began to appear in current conflicts in the Middle East.
Iran, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen used these elements against Israel. Israel also uses a number of unmanned vehicles in its genocidal war in Gaza.
China is testing ways to use unmanned systems to blockade Taiwan and prevent foreign powers from helping the island in the event of a Chinese attack, and is rapidly increasing its investments in this regard.
In all these developments, advances in artificial intelligence and autonomous systems enable armies and non-state groups to change the balance on the battlefield.
Changing war concept
Throughout history, the parties have aimed to have their human resources numerically superior to the other side and to have more military materials. Because this situation was of critical importance for victory in the war.
The more soldiers an army could deploy, whether armed with spears, bows and rifles or sitting in tanks, the better chance it had of defeating its enemies.
This principle determined the way armies achieved victory in dozens of wars from imperial times to World War II.
But over the last 50 years, there has been a transformation from mass to sensitivity, a trend that accelerated with the end of the Cold War.
First, militaries such as the United States discovered greater efficiency and effectiveness in the use of expensive advanced weapons that could accurately hit targets anywhere in the world. And the governments of these countries have sought to reduce the size of their forces and instead focus on improving their technological advantages.
Today’s wars have revealed a reality that will destroy the dichotomy between mass and precision.
Militaries find themselves in a new era where more and more actors can assemble unmanned systems and missiles and have access to cheap satellites.
With these tools, we can carry out easier surveillance, launch accurate and devastating attacks, and radically change the balance on the battlefield.
Wars are now overwhelmingly defined by the deployment of a multitude of unmanned systems, from space to subsea, whether fully autonomous and AI-enhanced unmanned systems or remote attack elements.
These changes seen in today’s conflicts are a harbinger of how wars will be waged in the near future.
Historical transformation in a short time
For a long time, countries believed that they could achieve success on the battlefield by having more soldiers, equipment, and supplies than their opponents.
However, this theory first began to change in the late 1960s. The U.S. military adopted a strategy that believed precision over quantity would deliver victory. U.S. forces sought to track and strike targets with greater accuracy than ever before.
In the 1970s, the United States and its European allies faced numerically superior Soviet forces. When they encountered the Soviets, they were no match for the tanks. Top US military analysts feared that Moscow would win a war in Europe because of its numerical advantage. To address these concerns, the United States launched a program called Assault Breaker to integrate then-emerging technologies into military planning to use precision missiles and bombs to devastate Soviet forces.
Even though the Soviets made the first breakthrough in an attack on Central Europe, they suffered deep damage to the Western lines. By deploying sensors, early guidance systems, and long-range weapons, the United States was able to destroy the second, third, and subsequent waves of Soviet forces in Europe.
These precision strike capabilities first appeared to the public in the first Gulf War in 1991.
People around the world watched images of guided bombs hitting Iraqi tanks on screen for the first time.
In the first part of the twenty-first century, wars were fought over more advanced land vehicles, aircraft, submarines, ships and weapons.
However, in the last decade, with developments such as unmanned vehicles and artificial intelligence, there has been a radical change in the battlefields.
America lost its edge
The United States no longer has the great superiority in precision strike capabilities that it once did. The technology underlying these capabilities, such as conventional munitions, sensors and guidance systems, has become cheaper over time and accessible to many countries outside the United States.
Now, many structures, from small technology companies to state institutions, have become actors that can produce destructive weapons with their knowledge, technology and expertise.
Most importantly, advances in manufacturing and software have reduced the price of key equipment, and examples have emerged where a drone equipped with cheap weapons had to be intercepted by multimillion-dollar missiles.
Of course, these cheap and precise systems do not completely make tanks, artillery, and other elements of modern warfare obsolete. However, it is certain that they showed us a trailer of the battlefields of the future.
Future battlefields will be characterized by a mix of high-end systems deployed in smaller numbers and these attritional systems deployed in much larger numbers.
New generation warfare
This change in the character of warfare is accelerating not only because of its technical feasibility but also because of its potential advantages on the battlefield.
For; Not only big states, but any actor, small or large, can create a tremendous striking power by using large-scale and cheaper systems.
For example, Ukraine demonstrated that it could hit a Russian ship kilometers away with a tactical drone worth a few thousand dollars.
Just 10 years ago and under normal circumstances, warplanes worth tens of millions of dollars and missiles worth millions of dollars would be needed to hit such a target.
On the other hand, the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for more than two years, has shown that conflicts between states will not always be short-lived, and therefore it will be much more difficult to try to maintain sufficient stocks of expensive systems.
Conclusion:
This process of change, which has occurred only in the last decade, clearly shows signs of a major change in the way wars will be conducted from now on.
The near future, where laser systems, new generation military elements deployed in space and capable of destroying satellites, swarm drone technologies and robots supported by artificial intelligence will come into play more, will undoubtedly take the concept of wars to a very different point.
All actors, large and small, will become large-scale and massively destructive forces, and trained operators will influence the outcomes of conflicts by controlling swarms of drones on land, sea and air, while sitting in front of their screens at home or in a military headquarters.
Source: www.star.com.tr
