Kamala Harris’s national lead in the polls is at its lowest point since she entered the race, but the Democratic candidate has gained momentum in key “blue wall” states Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
According to the most recent Marist poll, Kamala Harris leads voting intentions with 51% against Donald Trump’s 48% in Michigan and 50% against 48% in Wisconsin. This new poll also gives the Democrat an advantage in Pennsylvania, 50% to 48%, which will be crucial for victory on November 5th.
However, other polls show a more tied race in Pennsylvania, while the swing in favor of Harris in Michigan and Wisconsin appears to be more decisive. The CNN poll in these two states shows Harris leading (49%-46%).
The “blue wall” is a group of 18 states that gave victory to the Democratic candidate for decades and that suffered a defeat in 2016, when Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
In the seven swing states, joined by North Carolina, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia, the new HarrisX/Forbes poll shows Harris ahead 49%-48%, which is a statistical tie.
In North Carolina, which is still recovering from Hurricane Helene, the Fox News poll shows Trump with 50% against Harris’ 48%, with the Republican also with 1 point more in Georgia according to the SSRS.
Emerson puts the Democrat ahead in Nevada by one point (48%-47%) and in Arizona it is Trump who is ahead, with 51%-47% in the CES survey.
The analysts’ caveat is that these differences are small and therefore fall within the margin of error, which explains why, even with movements to one side or the other, the race remains tied.
In national polls, where Kamala Harris had a lead of three to four points, the race tightened significantly. The aggregates now give the Democrat just one point more than Donald Trump.
The FiveThirtyEight platform shows Harris with 48% and Trump with 46.8%, and both with a similar calculation of chances of winning.
Still, it should be noted that there has been a slight reduction in Donald Trump’s victory lead, which is determined by electoral college votes and not the popular vote. The platform’s calculation gave the Republican a 54 out of 100 chance of winning and now gives it 51.
With millions of people voting in advance, analysts warn that it is unlikely the winner will be known on Tuesday, the day of the in-person election. As happened in 2020, it is possible that the process will take one or more days, also taking into account how fierce the race is.
Source: www.jornaldenegocios.pt
